The Disciplined Investor - Seite 2

Homepage  Xml - Vorschau mit Bildern

TDI Podcast: ESG – Just Another Scam? (#781)
Markets trying soooo hard to score a win. ECB hops on the BIG rate-hike bandwagon. Oil plunges – weird don’t you think? A few thoughts on what is next and a look into ESG investing. Looking for style diversification? More information on the TDI Managed Growth Strategy – https://thedisciplinedinvestor.com/blog/tdi-strategy/ eNVESTOLOGY Info – https://envestology.com/ Stocks mentioned […]

DHUnplugged #622: Box The Whites
Put away the white pants – box up the white shoes – summer is over. Deeply Oversold – Quick bounce potential is high (Happened last week and today already 3 times) New study on talking to plants PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter Warm Up - Back from NOLA - FSU/LSU game - unreal weekend - Putting away the White pants and shoes - post Labor Day - Europe is in trouble - Russia playing hardball with energy flows - Germany rethinking Nuclear energy - New study on talking to plants - Reminder of CTP that is closing for entries Friday Market Update - Deeply Oversold - Bounce Potential High (Happened last week and today already) --- Seems that 3.3% 10Yr is near-term cap? - QQQ bounce from low in June to high 23%, now eroded to 8% - Turmoil at BBBY - China lockdowns and OPEC production cuts - Apple Sept 7th launch event BIG ANNOUNCEMENT - TEASE REALLY - TriggerCharts Indicators - New Distribution, New platforms..! NOW TRADINGVIEW.. Launch 1st week of September - Tradestation, eSignal, TradingView! RSS Feed - FIXED Yields - 10yr Treasury at June Highs - 3.342% Market/Sectors Update Sectors - YTD When the going get tough - Throw out all Climate concerns - Germany keeping 2 nuclear power plans active (Uranium URA?) - Germany will keep two of its three remaining nuclear plants available for power production as part of a reserve scheme recommended by power transmission grid operators (TSOs) that stress-tested electricity supply - Economy minister Robert Habeck said the risks of nuclear technology mandated holding on to the exit plan but restrictions in Russian gas deliveries justified the reserve measure. Oil Production - OPEC cannot seem to make up its mind - a group of some of the world's most powerful oil producers on Monday agreed on a small output cut from next month, surprising energy markets at a time of considerable turmoil. - OPEC and non-OPEC partners, an influential energy alliance known as OPEC+, decided to cut production targets by about 100,000 barrels per day from October. - Oil spiked then dropped after the news (Economic realities and China lockdowns) Russia Playing Hardball - On Friday, Russian energy supplier Gazprom said it would not resume its supply of natural gas to Germany through the key Nord Stream 1 pipeline, blaming a malfunctioning turbine. - The euro fell below 99 cents for the first time in 20 years Monday, after Russia said it would shut off its main gas supply pipeline to Europe indefinitely. - The EU's common currency was trading around 0.9915 versus the dollar by 1:00 p.m. London time (8:00 a.m. ET), having climbed off lows of $0.9881 hit earlier in the day. - The dollar index, which measures the greenback against six major currencies, also breached a fresh two-decade high as the British pound slid on fears over energy supply and European economic growth. Last Item - Looking at European Gas prices - just to be clear - Lower gas flows from Russia ahead of and following its February invasion of Ukraine have already pushed up European prices by nearly 400% over the past year, sending electricity costs soaring. Crude Oil Futures California Rolling Blackouts? - Highest rates since 2020 - Potential for rotating outages to conserve --- How does this work for Electric cars? Supposed to be cheaper alternative China Lockdown - Some districts of China's southern tech hub Shenzhen extended curbs on public activities, dining out and entertainment venues on Friday, but city officials stopped short of a full lockdown - Most of Shenzhen's nearly 18 million residents are now under COVID controls amid the city's most serious outbreak since spring. - Restrictions in the central business district of Futian and Longhua, home to a major campus of Apple iPhone assembler Foxconn, have been extended until Sunday, while residents in several areas across the city were asked to work from home if possible. - These moves hurt global trade/oil prices and global growth outlook - China's Chengdu lockdown is ongoing Big Fines for Social Media - Ireland's data privacy regulator has agreed to levy a record fine of 405 million euros ($402 million) against social network Instagram following an investigation into its handling of children's data, a spokesperson for the watchdog said. - Appeal in progress| - The investigation, which started in 2020, focused on child users between the ages of 13 and 17 who were allowed to operate business accounts, which facilitated the publication of the user's phone number and/or email address. - WhatsApp was last year fined a record 225 million euros for failing to conform with EU data rules in 2018. Update - CVS - Signify - CVS Health Corp on Monday agreed to buy home healthcare services company Signify Health for about $8 billion in cash, a move that will enable one of the largest U.S. healthcare companies to provide further care management to patients in their homes. BBBY Update - Bed Bath & Beyond on Sunday confirmed that its Chief Financial Officer Gustavo Arnal died over the weekend, after police had said earlier that Arnal fell to his death. - Arnal, 52, fell Friday afternoon from a building in downtown Manhattan, according to police. The iconic skyscraper, known locally as the "Jenga Tower" or the "Jenga Building," has more than 50 floors of uniquely stacked apartments. - Deemed a Suicide - Days after company announcing plans to close 150 stores of its "lower producing" namesake stores. The New Jersey-based retailer also said it would be cutting 20% of its staff and added that it had secured more than $500 million in new financing - Plenty of other speculation related to lawsuits claiming pump/dump scheme involving Ryan Cohen and Arnal. Economic Update - Part of the problem is that eco data in US remains "good" - Unemployment moves from 3.5% to 3.7% - Avg Hourly Earnings 0.3% vs 0.4% expected - Non-Farm payrolls +315k - ISM Services (Non Manufacturing) 56.9 (good expansion) - Coming Up this week - Beige Book, Initial Claims, Consumer Credit, Wholesale Inventories (light) New Rules - Disclosure - U.S.-listed companies will need to disclose how the pay of their top executives squares with overall company performance. - In addition, U.S.-listed companies will have to provide a clear description of the relationship between each financial performance measure and CEO pay versus other named executives, the SEC said in its release. - The measure will make it easier for shareholders to assess a publicly traded company’s decision-making with respect to executive compensation policies--a long-recognized value to investors, SEC Chair Gary Gensler said in a statement. - The measure comes amid a push by President Joe Biden's administration to force listed companies to review working conditions, pay equity, hiring and retention policies. PLANTS! - Nearly half, 48%, of people surveyed by Trees.com admitted that they talk to the leafy creatures. - And a majority of those individuals, 62%, believe it has helped their mental health. - The survey polled 1,250 people, asking if, why and how often they talk to their plants. - A majority say they only talk to their houseplants. However, 62% talk to outdoor plants and 37% talk to the trees they walk by on the street. - And over a fifth of participants, 27.67%, say they've hugged a plant and even 22.5% have kissed one. - Horticultural therapy allows individuals to process challenges that they're facing in their own lives by shifting their focus to being in control of something that is more predictable Apple Event (Tomorrow at 1PM ET) - Does it matter anymore? - In person mix with recorded  videos ---- Have not done in-person live since 2019 - Apple iPhone 14 announcement - Watch 8 -- What will pricing look like? -- Subscription plan for iPhone hardware? Bonus - E-cigarette maker Juul Labs Inc has agreed to pay $438.5 million to settle claims by 34 U.S. states and territories that it downplayed its products' risks and targeted underage buyers, several states announced Tuesday. - As part of the settlement, Juul has agreed to refrain from some kinds of marketing, including the use of cartoons, product placement and depictions of users under 35. 420 Stocks ... CLICK for list of "Pot Stocks" Stocks to watch: CGC, STZ, TLRY, CRON, MJ, NBEV Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? CTP for Bed Bath and Beyond (BBBY) *** NEW INTERACTIVE CHARTS *** Winners will be getting great stuff like the new DHUnplugged Shirts (Designed by Jimbo) - PLUS a one-of-a-kind DHUnplugged CTP Winner's certificate.. CLICK HERE FOR MORE CHARTS ON TRADING VIEW UPDATE - NEW ETF - Global X Millennials Thematic ETF Challenge! The top holdings of Global X Millennials Thematic ETF (MILN) include stocks many investors would expect, such as Facebook, LinkedIn and Amazon, which take advantage of the tech tendencies of millennials. But some names might be more surprising like real estate investment trusts AvalonBay Communities and Equity Residential, and Home Depot, which could benefit from millennials moving out of the home of their parents. We are creating the DH Old Codger Index Portfolio to compete against this new ETF to see how "old school" stocks do in comparison. Companies in our index will include: (updated names as of 8/29/16) We have the performance summary running (daily and since inception of 5/6/16) - DHOCI vs. Millennials ETF Battle CRYPTO LIMERICKS JCD Score () FED LIMERICKS JCD Score () See this week’s stock picks HERE Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter

TDI Podcast: Ugly Two-Headed Llama (#780)
Thomas Thornton, Hedge Fund Telemetry is our guest. The Two-headed llama – Pushing and pulling policies are leading us down a dark hole. Markets – well, if you are fully long – the pain is real as rates are high, and stocks are low We are going to get into it with our guest… Thomas […]

DHUnplugged #621: PAIN AHEAD
PAIN – that is what he said…. PAIN! RSS feed gone wild. It looks like it is fixed. Markets held up nicely – but end of the month, low volume and just trader exhaustion seemed to win over. PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter Warm Up - Worst Day in months - Powell invokes Volker  - PAIN AHEAD - $10,000 off Student Debt Sale - RSS Feed - something not right with DHUnplugged - Pushed show on Fedd 5 times last week. - Need a CTP Stock! - Inflation HOT is baseball Card Market! Market Update - HOT MESS - Now What? - -  Europe poised for more problems with Russian Oil - ECB next in line to start hiking rates - EVs Stil hot News - Ford up - 50-Day MA - S&P 500 and NASDAQ 100, touch and bump Monday BIG ANNOUNCEMENT - TEASE REALLY - TriggerCharts Indicators - New Distribution, New platforms..! NOW TRADING VIEW.. Launch 1st week of September - Tradestation, eSignal, TradingView! RSS Feed Gone Wild! - Pushed 3-4 DHUnplugged. Something with Site code - Maybe... We shall see tonight. Salesforce Story - Credit Card expiration - thought I updated - Billing due 8/14 - 8/29 get a threatening email and warning about pulling forward contract and lock out - 8/29 - LOCKED OUT - can't even get to the billing area to see what is up... - Threatening email - no direct way to contact --- Your account with Salesforce has an outstanding balance of USD******. If this balance is not settled by 08-Sep-2022, your account will be placed with a third party collection agency. If payment is received by Salesforce after this date, payment for the full contract value will be required before your account can be reactivated and for any and all collection costs incurred by Salesforce including the fee for placing the account. We are obligated to pursue the entire unpaid contract value of any and all agreements between Salesforce and *Horowitz & Co.  We would like to avoid these measures; however, we feel we have no choice but to take these steps. Salesforce will have no obligation to maintain or provide your data after the time specified in your Master Subscription Agreement, and will thereafter delete or destroy all copies of your data in our systems. You may request a data export within the time period set forth in the Documentation by logging a support case. Start with Inflation Item - "Gasoline futures have fallen to new trend lows this morning, now printing lowest levels in over 6 months" - Down 32% from high Gas Futures Technicals ! - 50 DMA - holds for all major indices after Friday's breakdown - 200-day massive resistance - - Institutional - 1st line of support (50 Day) ---- But 50 Day below 200 day - Not good set up ---- One good thing - 50 Day slightly rising - End of Month, light volume, big sell-off - Needs to Hold and rebound if any chance Powell Speech - Says the word Pain - Invokes comment about Volker - Essentially walks back any thought that they are going to slow the rate hikes White House Prepping - Says they think employment numbers may be soft on Friday - or softening... - On that note - SNAP laying off  20% of staff - Remember all those calls for : "Nobody teaches finance in school?" - THIS IS WHY WE GET COMPANIES THAT THIK THEY CN RUN WITH CRAP FINANCIALS Jackson Hole Reality Check - Awakening - Central banks spent decades building their credibility on inflation fighting skills and losing this battle could shake the foundations of modern monetary policy. - - "The longer inflation stays high, the greater the risk that the public will lose confidence in our determination and ability to preserve purchasing power." (ECB Member) - "Even if we enter a recession, we have basically little choice but to continue our policy path," Schnabel said. "If there were a deanchoring of inflation expectations, the effect on the economy would be even worse." ECB - Jackson Hole - European Central Bank policymakers made the case on Saturday for a large interest rate hike next month as inflation remains uncomfortably high and the public may be losing trust in the bank's inflation-fighting credentials. - becoming entrenched in expectations are uncomfortably high," Schnabel said. "In this environment, central banks need to act forcefully." - Let's discuss - massive energy problem and hiking aggressively into it? Speaking of Energy - Top oil exporter Saudi Arabia could slash October prices for most crude grades it sells to Asia after a plunge in spot premiums as tepid fuel demand and increasing arbitrage cargoes put pressure on oil prices in the region. - ON THE OTHER HAND - --- Last week Saudi and OPEC said that they want to limit supply to much of the world as proices are dropping. More Energy - The U.S. Energy Secretary urged domestic oil refiners this month to not further increase exports of fuels like gasoline and diesel, adding that the Biden administration may need to consider taking action if the plants do not build inventories. - "Given the historic level of U.S. refined product exports, I again urge you to focus in the near term on building inventories in the United States, rather than selling down current stocks and further increasing exports," Granholm said in the letter sent to refiners, a copy of which was seen by Reuters. - WAIT WHAT? The Biden Admin is responsible for 1 million barrels per day China Update - Going from Bad to Worse - Chinese technology giants are coming off the back of their worst quarter of growth in history as a big slowdown in the world's second-largest economy, stoked by Beijing's strict Covid policy - Retail sales decreased year-over year in April and May due to the resurgence of Covid-19 in Shanghai and other major cities, and has slowly recovered in June - AND - China's technology sector continues to contend with a much stricter regulatory environment. Over the past two years, China has introduced tougher policy in areas from gaming to data protection. - WORST OVER- ? Keep Reading ... Keep Reading - Authorities in China's southern city of Shenzhen shut the world's largest electronics market of Huaqiangbei and suspended service at 24 subway stations on Monday in a bid to curb an outbreak of COVID-19. - Subway services at 24 stations in the central districts of Futian and Luohu were also halted, according to official local media. China - Worst Not Over - Profits at China's industrial firms sank in July, reversing previous gains as fresh COVID-19 curbs dragged down demand and squeezed factory margins, while power shortages due to heatwaves threatened production. - Profits at China's industrial firms fell 1.1% in January-July from a year earlier, wiping out the 1.0% growth logged during the first six months, the National Bureau of Statistics said on Saturday. Lighter Note - A mint condition Mickey Mantle baseball card sold for $12.6 million Sunday, blasting into the record books as the most ever paid for sports memorabilia in a market that has grown exponentially more lucrative in recent years. - The rare Mantle card eclipsed the record just posted a few months ago — $9.3 million for the jersey worn by Diego Maradona when he scored the contentious “Hand of God” goal in soccer's 1986 World Cup. Is this a Good Idea? - The Biden administration plans to ask the U.S. Congress to approve an estimated $1.1 billion arms sale to Taiwan, including 60 anti-ship missiles and 100 air-to-air missiles, Housing Market --Home Partners of America, the single-family landlord owned by Blackstone Inc., will stop buying homes in 38 US cities, becoming the latest institutional investor to back away from an overheated housing market. - Identical to Car Lease... ---- Fiind a Home, They Buy it and lease back to you, At end you can renew, or buy, or walk away - Lease to Purchase Homes - Check it out - https://www.homepartners.com/ Twitter - Received another "NO THANKS - PLEASE CANCEL" from Elon Musk - Is this going to happen? Tech - Sea Change or One Off? - Dell Technologies Inc posted its slowest revenue growth in six quarters on Thursday as a surge in the dollar and COVID-19 flare-ups in major market China offset a jump in its enterprise-focused business. - The greenback surge has this year eaten into the earnings of technology firms from Microsoft Inc to Apple Inc , compounding pressure from a drop in consumer spending on electronics such as personal computers and smartphones. - Dell's revenue rose 9% to $26.43 billion in the quarter to July 29 and was roughly in line with market expectations, according to Refinitiv data. - Consumer revenue fell 9%, echoing weakness seen at Intel Corp and Lenovo Group as demand weakened after a pandemic-fueled boom and decades-high inflation prompted consumers to prioritize essentials. (PULL FORWARD) 420 Stocks ... CLICK for list of "Pot Stocks" Stocks to watch: CGC, STZ, TLRY, CRON, MJ, NBEV Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Announcing the CTP for Bed Bath and Beyond (BBBY) *** NEW INTERACTIVE CHARTS *** Winners will be getting great stuff like the new DHUnplugged Shirts (Designed by Jimbo) - PLUS a one-of-a-kind DHUnplugged CTP Winner's certificate.. CLICK HERE FOR MORE CHARTS ON TRADING VIEW UPDATE - NEW ETF - Global X Millennials Thematic ETF Challenge! The top holdings of Global X Millennials Thematic ETF (MILN) include stocks many investors would expect, such as Facebook, LinkedIn and Amazon, which take advantage of the tech tendencies of millennials. But some names might be more surprising like real estate investment trusts AvalonBay Communities and Equity Residential, and Home Depot, which could benefit from millennials moving out of the home of their parents. We are creating the DH Old Codger Index Portfolio to compete against this new ETF to see how "old school" stocks do in comparison. Companies in our index will include: (updated names as of 8/29/16) We have the performance summary running (daily and since inception of 5/6/16) - DHOCI vs. Millennials ETF Battle CRYPTO LIMERICKS JCD Score () FED LIMERICKS JCD Score () See this week’s stock picks HERE Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter

DHUnplugged #620 – Update 3
Update3 – Push to Podcast Apps

TDI Podcast: Alt-Invest with Dave Kavanagh (#779)
Dave Kavanagh of Grant Park is our guest, discussing commodity trading strategies and alt-investing. Mr. Powell is a Party Pooper – taking away the punch bowl again. Crude oil seems to have a floor now – THANKS OPEC! David M. Kavanagh, president of the general partner has been responsible for overseeing all operations and activities […]

DHUnplugged 620 – Update 2
Update – Push to Podcast Apps

DHUnplugged #620: Squeeze Squashed
Squeeze No More – Meme names come crashing down to earth! Treasury (yields) moving higher again – lots of Central bank chatter Jackson Hole confab this week – what will Powell say? Retail earnings… Hit and miss…. PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter Warm Up - The Squeeze gets squashed - Really HOT in China! - E Coli outbreak - watch out - Jackson Hole Annual gathering of eco big-wigs - Gearing up for War? - A sad day for the Auto industry Market Update - Rolling Over - Fed ratchets up "communication strategy" - Everyone watching the Jackson Hole confab - Friday Powell Speaks  (morning) - Treasury (yields) moving higher again - lots of Central bank chatter - - 10Yr Yield > 3% again - Retail Earnings Reminder - This week on TDI Podcast - Peter Schiff (Gold, Tuna and Central Banks) BREAKING NEWS - White House officials expect slower economic growth in 2022 with higher inflation, according to NY Times Now this is interesting - EURO @NG... Euro NG Facts - Just the Facts - At the end of 2021, Natural Gas Prices on Europe was priced at 70 Euros. U.S. Natural gas (NG) was priced at $2.53. ---- Note that these have different measurements, but let's just look at price escalation. - Currently, the price of Natural gas in Europe is 276 Euros. Here in the U.S. it is $9.64. - So, European natural gas has moved up 294% since the end of 2021. U.S. Natural gas has seen a 281% rise. - If you were only getting info from the TV talking heads, you would believe that NG prices have moved much more than here in the U.S. - The blame has been squarely directed to Russia on this. But, the U.S. is a major NG producer. Big problem with the messaging.... So, What Does German Do About it? - German Economy Minister Robert Habeck ruled out on Sunday extending the lifespan of the country's three remaining nuclear power plants in order to save gas, saying it would save at most 2 percent of gas use. - These savings were not sufficient to be worth reopening the debate about the exit from nuclear energy given the consensus on the topic, he said during a discussion with citizens at the government's open-door day. Oil Not Going Down - Oil prices edged up on Tuesday, after Saudi Arabia warned that OPEC could cut output to correct a recent drop in oil futures. - The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries stands ready to reduce production to correct the recent oil price fall driven by poor futures market liquidity and macro-economic fears, which has ignored extremely tight physical crude supply Meanwhile - U.S. crude inventory in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) fell by 8.1 million barrels in the latest week to the lowest level in more than 35 years, according to data from the Department of Energy. One More Energy - German utility Uniper SE on Monday said it will start producing electricity for the market at its Heyden 4 hard-coal-fired power plant as a three-day halt in Russia's gas supplies to Europe may cause disruptions to power supply. - In December 2020, Uniper announced that Heyden 4 would stop commercial production as Germany's energy regulator included it on the list of plants that may be shut in return for compensation to fight carbon pollution. - So much for global warming! Remember The SQUEEEEEZE - Was fun while it lasted - BBBY high of $30, now below $10 ---- Ryan Cohen pumped and dumped.... Sol ALL SHARES a couple days after the big move (That was due to his massive option purchase) - AMC $27 last week to $11 now - Big reversals for ARRK type names after nice run-up - - 200 Day MA for S&P500 was line in the sand M&A - Signify Health surged 37.5% in premarket trading as a potential bidding war escalates for the home health services provider. - Amazon.com (AMZN) and UnitedHealth (UNH) are now said to be among the bidders, according to The Wall Street Journal - Healthcare company with heavy analystics and in-home services. Interesting add. Japan and Rev Moon - More problems with Unification Church - Now new Prime Minister Kishida linked to church - support falls to 36% from 52% - Unification Church - founded in South Korea in the 1950s and famous for its mass weddings - Moonies ! China - Not Good at All - Heatwaves... - The Chinese city of Chongqing is shortening the opening hours of its malls from Monday due to an "urgent" power supply situation caused by a recent heatwave - China's Sichuan province will extend curbs on industrial power consumers until Aug. 25 as it tries to deal with dwindling hydropower output and surging household electricity demand following a long heatwave - Red ALERT for Heat as temps hover past 104 - Average August temps in region - 87 - 92 Jackson Hole Eco Gathering - The gathering is one of the central banking profession's A-list events, with global officials kibbitzing over cocktails, listening to presentations on new research, hiking the Grand Teton mountains and fly fishing for fine-spotted cutthroat trout on the Snake River. - The gathering also offers an attention-getting perch for a Fed chief or other policymaker to fine-tune their messaging. ---- They will be discussing "Inflation's Broad Roots" ----- Remember Bernanke's "Green Shoots"? Kissinger Says - We are at the edge of war with Russia and China on issues which we partly created, without any concept of how this is going to end or what it’s supposed to lead to. - I think that the current period has a great trouble defining a direction. It’s very responsive to the emotion of the moment. - Some of this may be in response to the fact that China sent troops to Russia for "joint training" ----- Note: these joint exercises take place every four years, and include India, Belarus, Mongolia, Tajikistan and other countries E.Coli - The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said it is probing an E.coli bacteria outbreak in four states from an unknown food source, with many of the affected reported to have had sandwiches at Wendy's Co - Of the 37 sick, 22 people were said to have consumed Wendy's sandwiches with romaine lettuce in Michigan, Ohio, Indiana and Pennsylvania - Wendy's pulled ROMAINE lettuce - but still unclear about what is cause A First for Girl Scouts - Raspberry Rally - Similar to a think mint, but Raspberry - ONLY SOLD ONLINE ... --- ? A local Girl Scout places the order for you online. ----- The group says the goal is to help girl scouts build e-commerce skills. Retail - Mixed Bag - Target posted earnings last week on Wednesday - Reported a bigger than expected 90% fall in quarterly earnings and missed comparable sales estimates on Wednesday as aggressive discounting fell short of reversing a slump in spending on discretionary goods. - The company's operating margin rate tumbled to 1.2% in the second quarter, below the 2% forecast last month and 9.8% a year earlier, due to costs related with clearing out excess merchandise. Retail Earnings - Macy's Inc cut its full-year sales and profit forecasts on Tuesday, with the company saying it will need to offer more discounts to get rid off excess inventories of casual and athleisure apparel, even as demand for luxury products holds up. - Macy's inventories were up 7% at the end of the second quarter, compared with a year earlier - The company said it expects fiscal 2022 adjusted earnings of $4.00 to $4.20 per share, compared with its previous outlook of $4.53 to $4.95 per share. - Comparable sales at Macy's upscale Bloomingdale's department stores rose 5.8% in the second quarter, while they rose 7.6% at its luxury beauty outlet Blue Mercury. Bed Bath and Yuck - Stock slammed - Was at $30 high - - Ryan Cohen (Started the Gamma Sqeeze) sold ALL shares - Stock off by ??? - Down Sub $9 AMC - Issues new shares, dividend, screwing around with preferreds - Stock was $28 last week - Now sub $10 Zoom Earnings - Guiding Down - Not much good to say (Stock off by 16%) - It was fun while it lasted - Stock $81 (ATH was $581) Auto Sadness - Dodge will discontinue its gas-powered Challenger and Charger muscle cars at the end of next year, marking the end of an era for the brand as it starts to transition to electric vehicles. - For several years, Dodge has warned that the end was coming for the gas-powered muscle cars due to emissions regulations. Dodge parent company Stellantis, formerly Fiat Chrysler, ranks the worst among major manufacturers for U.S. corporate average fuel economy and carbon emissions. 420 Stocks ... CLICK for list of "Pot Stocks" Stocks to watch: CGC, STZ, TLRY, CRON, MJ, NBEV Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? THE CTP for AirBNB (ABNB) *** NEW INTERACTIVE CHARTS *** Winners will be getting great stuff like the new DHUnplugged Shirts (Designed by Jimbo) - PLUS a one-of-a-kind DHUnplugged CTP Winner's certificate.. CLICK HERE FOR MORE CHARTS ON TRADING VIEW UPDATE - NEW ETF - Global X Millennials Thematic ETF Challenge! The top holdings of Global X Millennials Thematic ETF (MILN) include stocks many investors would expect, such as Facebook, LinkedIn and Amazon, which take advantage of the tech tendencies of millennials. But some names might be more surprising like real estate investment trusts AvalonBay Communities and Equity Residential, and Home Depot, which could benefit from millennials moving out of the home of their parents. We are creating the DH Old Codger Index Portfolio to compete against this new ETF to see how "old school" stocks do in comparison. Companies in our index will include: (updated names as of 8/29/16) We have the performance summary running (daily and since inception of 5/6/16) - DHOCI vs. Millennials ETF Battle CRYPTO LIMERICKS JCD Score () FED LIMERICKS JCD Score () See this week’s stock picks HERE Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter

DHUnplugged #620b: Squeeze Squashed
See the show notes here: https://www.dhunplugged.com/2022/08/24/dhunplugged-620-squeeze-squashed-2/

DHUnplugged #620: Squeeze Squashed
Squeeze No More – Meme names come crashing down to earth. Treasury (yields) moving higher again – lots of Central bank chatter Jackson Hole confab this week – what will Powell say? Retail earnings… Hit and miss…. PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter Warm Up - The Squeeze gets squashed - Really HOT in China! - E Coli outbreak - watch out - Jackson Hole Annual gathering of eco big-wigs - Gearing up for War? - A sad day for the Auto industry Market Update - Rolling Over - Fed ratchets up "communication strategy" - Everyone watching the Jackson Hole confab - Friday Powell Speaks  (morning) - Treasury (yields) moving higher again - lots of Central bank chatter - - 10Yr Yield > 3% again - Retail Earnings Reminder - This week on TDI Podcast - Peter Schiff (Gold, Tuna and Central Banks) BREAKING NEWS - White House officials expect slower economic growth in 2022 with higher inflation, according to NY Times Now this is interesting - EURO @NG... Euro NG Facts - Just the Facts - At the end of 2021, Natural Gas Prices on Europe was priced at 70 Euros. U.S. Natural gas (NG) was priced at $2.53. ---- Note that these have different measurements, but let's just look at price escalation. - Currently, the price of Natural gas in Europe is 276 Euros. Here in the U.S. it is $9.64. - So, European natural gas has moved up 294% since the end of 2021. U.S. Natural gas has seen a 281% rise. - If you were only getting info from the TV talking heads, you would believe that NG prices have moved much more than here in the U.S. - The blame has been squarely directed to Russia on this. But, the U.S. is a major NG producer. Big problem with the messaging.... So, What Does German Do About it? - German Economy Minister Robert Habeck ruled out on Sunday extending the lifespan of the country's three remaining nuclear power plants in order to save gas, saying it would save at most 2 percent of gas use. - These savings were not sufficient to be worth reopening the debate about the exit from nuclear energy given the consensus on the topic, he said during a discussion with citizens at the government's open-door day. Oil Not Going Down - Oil prices edged up on Tuesday, after Saudi Arabia warned that OPEC could cut output to correct a recent drop in oil futures. - The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries stands ready to reduce production to correct the recent oil price fall driven by poor futures market liquidity and macro-economic fears, which has ignored extremely tight physical crude supply Meanwhile - U.S. crude inventory in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) fell by 8.1 million barrels in the latest week to the lowest level in more than 35 years, according to data from the Department of Energy. One More Energy - German utility Uniper SE on Monday said it will start producing electricity for the market at its Heyden 4 hard-coal-fired power plant as a three-day halt in Russia's gas supplies to Europe may cause disruptions to power supply. - In December 2020, Uniper announced that Heyden 4 would stop commercial production as Germany's energy regulator included it on the list of plants that may be shut in return for compensation to fight carbon pollution. - So much for global warming! Remember The SQUEEEEEZE - Was fun while it lasted - BBBY high of $30, now below $10 ---- Ryan Cohen pumped and dumped.... Sol ALL SHARES a couple days after the big move (That was due to his massive option purchase) - AMC $27 last week to $11 now - Big reversals for ARRK type names after nice run-up - - 200 Day MA for S&P500 was line in the sand M&A - Signify Health surged 37.5% in premarket trading as a potential bidding war escalates for the home health services provider. - Amazon.com (AMZN) and UnitedHealth (UNH) are now said to be among the bidders, according to The Wall Street Journal - Healthcare company with heavy analystics and in-home services. Interesting add. Japan and Rev Moon - More problems with Unification Church - Now new Prime Minister Kishida linked to church - support falls to 36% from 52% - Unification Church - founded in South Korea in the 1950s and famous for its mass weddings - Moonies ! China - Not Good at All - Heatwaves... - The Chinese city of Chongqing is shortening the opening hours of its malls from Monday due to an "urgent" power supply situation caused by a recent heatwave - China's Sichuan province will extend curbs on industrial power consumers until Aug. 25 as it tries to deal with dwindling hydropower output and surging household electricity demand following a long heatwave - Red ALERT for Heat as temps hover past 104 - Average August temps in region - 87 - 92 Jackson Hole Eco Gathering - The gathering is one of the central banking profession's A-list events, with global officials kibbitzing over cocktails, listening to presentations on new research, hiking the Grand Teton mountains and fly fishing for fine-spotted cutthroat trout on the Snake River. - The gathering also offers an attention-getting perch for a Fed chief or other policymaker to fine-tune their messaging. ---- They will be discussing "Inflation's Broad Roots" ----- Remember Bernanke's "Green Shoots"? Kissinger Says - We are at the edge of war with Russia and China on issues which we partly created, without any concept of how this is going to end or what it’s supposed to lead to. - I think that the current period has a great trouble defining a direction. It’s very responsive to the emotion of the moment. - Some of this may be in response to the fact that China sent troops to Russia for "joint training" ----- Note: these joint exercises take place every four years, and include India, Belarus, Mongolia, Tajikistan and other countries E.Coli - The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said it is probing an E.coli bacteria outbreak in four states from an unknown food source, with many of the affected reported to have had sandwiches at Wendy's Co - Of the 37 sick, 22 people were said to have consumed Wendy's sandwiches with romaine lettuce in Michigan, Ohio, Indiana and Pennsylvania - Wendy's pulled ROMAINE lettuce - but still unclear about what is cause A First for Girl Scouts - Raspberry Rally - Similar to a think mint, but Raspberry - ONLY SOLD ONLINE ... --- ? A local Girl Scout places the order for you online. ----- The group says the goal is to help girl scouts build e-commerce skills. Retail - Mixed Bag - Target posted earnings last week on Wednesday - Reported a bigger than expected 90% fall in quarterly earnings and missed comparable sales estimates on Wednesday as aggressive discounting fell short of reversing a slump in spending on discretionary goods. - The company's operating margin rate tumbled to 1.2% in the second quarter, below the 2% forecast last month and 9.8% a year earlier, due to costs related with clearing out excess merchandise. Retail Earnings - Macy's Inc cut its full-year sales and profit forecasts on Tuesday, with the company saying it will need to offer more discounts to get rid off excess inventories of casual and athleisure apparel, even as demand for luxury products holds up. - Macy's inventories were up 7% at the end of the second quarter, compared with a year earlier - The company said it expects fiscal 2022 adjusted earnings of $4.00 to $4.20 per share, compared with its previous outlook of $4.53 to $4.95 per share. - Comparable sales at Macy's upscale Bloomingdale's department stores rose 5.8% in the second quarter, while they rose 7.6% at its luxury beauty outlet Blue Mercury. Bed Bath and Yuck - Stock slammed - Was at $30 high - - Ryan Cohen (Started the Gamma Sqeeze) sold ALL shares - Stock off by ??? - Down Sub $9 AMC - Issues new shares, dividend, screwing around with preferreds - Stock was $28 last week - Now sub $10 Zoom Earnings - Guiding Down - Not much good to say (Stock off by 16%) - It was fun while it lasted - Stock $81 (ATH was $581) Auto Sadness - Dodge will discontinue its gas-powered Challenger and Charger muscle cars at the end of next year, marking the end of an era for the brand as it starts to transition to electric vehicles. - For several years, Dodge has warned that the end was coming for the gas-powered muscle cars due to emissions regulations. Dodge parent company Stellantis, formerly Fiat Chrysler, ranks the worst among major manufacturers for U.S. corporate average fuel economy and carbon emissions. 420 Stocks ... CLICK for list of "Pot Stocks" Stocks to watch: CGC, STZ, TLRY, CRON, MJ, NBEV Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? THE CTP for AirBNB (ABNB) *** NEW INTERACTIVE CHARTS *** Winners will be getting great stuff like the new DHUnplugged Shirts (Designed by Jimbo) - PLUS a one-of-a-kind DHUnplugged CTP Winner's certificate.. CLICK HERE FOR MORE CHARTS ON TRADING VIEW UPDATE - NEW ETF - Global X Millennials Thematic ETF Challenge! The top holdings of Global X Millennials Thematic ETF (MILN) include stocks many investors would expect, such as Facebook, LinkedIn and Amazon, which take advantage of the tech tendencies of millennials. But some names might be more surprising like real estate investment trusts AvalonBay Communities and Equity Residential, and Home Depot, which could benefit from millennials moving out of the home of their parents. We are creating the DH Old Codger Index Portfolio to compete against this new ETF to see how "old school" stocks do in comparison. Companies in our index will include: (updated names as of 8/29/16) We have the performance summary running (daily and since inception of 5/6/16) - DHOCI vs. Millennials ETF Battle CRYPTO LIMERICKS JCD Score () FED LIMERICKS JCD Score () See this week’s stock picks HERE Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter

DHUnplugged #620: Squeeze Squashed
Squeeze No More – Meme names come crashing down to earth. Treasury (yields) moving higher again – lots of Central bank chatter Jackson Hole confab this week – what will Powell say? Retail earnings… Hit and miss…. PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter Warm Up - The Squeeze gets squashed - Really HOT in China! - E Coli outbreak - watch out - Jackson Hole Annual gathering of eco big-wigs - Gearing up for War? - A sad day for the Auto industry Market Update - Rolling Over - Fed ratchets up "communication strategy" - Everyone watching the Jackson Hole confab - Friday Powell Speaks  (morning) - Treasury (yields) moving higher again - lots of Central bank chatter - - 10Yr Yield > 3% again - Retail Earnings Reminder - This week on TDI Podcast - Peter Schiff (Gold, Tuna and Central Banks) BREAKING NEWS - White House officials expect slower economic growth in 2022 with higher inflation, according to NY Times Now this is interesting - EURO @NG... Euro NG Facts - Just the Facts - At the end of 2021, Natural Gas Prices on Europe was priced at 70 Euros. U.S. Natural gas (NG) was priced at $2.53. ---- Note that these have different measurements, but let's just look at price escalation. - Currently, the price of Natural gas in Europe is 276 Euros. Here in the U.S. it is $9.64. - So, European natural gas has moved up 294% since the end of 2021. U.S. Natural gas has seen a 281% rise. - If you were only getting info from the TV talking heads, you would believe that NG prices have moved much more than here in the U.S. - The blame has been squarely directed to Russia on this. But, the U.S. is a major NG producer. Big problem with the messaging.... So, What Does German Do About it? - German Economy Minister Robert Habeck ruled out on Sunday extending the lifespan of the country's three remaining nuclear power plants in order to save gas, saying it would save at most 2 percent of gas use. - These savings were not sufficient to be worth reopening the debate about the exit from nuclear energy given the consensus on the topic, he said during a discussion with citizens at the government's open-door day. Oil Not Going Down - Oil prices edged up on Tuesday, after Saudi Arabia warned that OPEC could cut output to correct a recent drop in oil futures. - The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries stands ready to reduce production to correct the recent oil price fall driven by poor futures market liquidity and macro-economic fears, which has ignored extremely tight physical crude supply Meanwhile - U.S. crude inventory in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) fell by 8.1 million barrels in the latest week to the lowest level in more than 35 years, according to data from the Department of Energy. One More Energy - German utility Uniper SE on Monday said it will start producing electricity for the market at its Heyden 4 hard-coal-fired power plant as a three-day halt in Russia's gas supplies to Europe may cause disruptions to power supply. - In December 2020, Uniper announced that Heyden 4 would stop commercial production as Germany's energy regulator included it on the list of plants that may be shut in return for compensation to fight carbon pollution. - So much for global warming! Remember The SQUEEEEEZE - Was fun while it lasted - BBBY high of $30, now below $10 ---- Ryan Cohen pumped and dumped.... Sol ALL SHARES a couple days after the big move (That was due to his massive option purchase) - AMC $27 last week to $11 now - Big reversals for ARRK type names after nice run-up - - 200 Day MA for S&P500 was line in the sand M&A - Signify Health surged 37.5% in premarket trading as a potential bidding war escalates for the home health services provider. - Amazon.com (AMZN) and UnitedHealth (UNH) are now said to be among the bidders, according to The Wall Street Journal - Healthcare company with heavy analystics and in-home services. Interesting add. Japan and Rev Moon - More problems with Unification Church - Now new Prime Minister Kishida linked to church - support falls to 36% from 52% - Unification Church - founded in South Korea in the 1950s and famous for its mass weddings - Moonies ! China - Not Good at All - Heatwaves... - The Chinese city of Chongqing is shortening the opening hours of its malls from Monday due to an "urgent" power supply situation caused by a recent heatwave - China's Sichuan province will extend curbs on industrial power consumers until Aug. 25 as it tries to deal with dwindling hydropower output and surging household electricity demand following a long heatwave - Red ALERT for Heat as temps hover past 104 - Average August temps in region - 87 - 92 Jackson Hole Eco Gathering - The gathering is one of the central banking profession's A-list events, with global officials kibbitzing over cocktails, listening to presentations on new research, hiking the Grand Teton mountains and fly fishing for fine-spotted cutthroat trout on the Snake River. - The gathering also offers an attention-getting perch for a Fed chief or other policymaker to fine-tune their messaging. ---- They will be discussing "Inflation's Broad Roots" ----- Remember Bernanke's "Green Shoots"? Kissinger Says - We are at the edge of war with Russia and China on issues which we partly created, without any concept of how this is going to end or what it’s supposed to lead to. - I think that the current period has a great trouble defining a direction. It’s very responsive to the emotion of the moment. - Some of this may be in response to the fact that China sent troops to Russia for "joint training" ----- Note: these joint exercises take place every four years, and include India, Belarus, Mongolia, Tajikistan and other countries E.Coli - The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said it is probing an E.coli bacteria outbreak in four states from an unknown food source, with many of the affected reported to have had sandwiches at Wendy's Co - Of the 37 sick, 22 people were said to have consumed Wendy's sandwiches with romaine lettuce in Michigan, Ohio, Indiana and Pennsylvania - Wendy's pulled ROMAINE lettuce - but still unclear about what is cause A First for Girl Scouts - Raspberry Rally - Similar to a think mint, but Raspberry - ONLY SOLD ONLINE ... --- ? A local Girl Scout places the order for you online. ----- The group says the goal is to help girl scouts build e-commerce skills. Retail - Mixed Bag - Target posted earnings last week on Wednesday - Reported a bigger than expected 90% fall in quarterly earnings and missed comparable sales estimates on Wednesday as aggressive discounting fell short of reversing a slump in spending on discretionary goods. - The company's operating margin rate tumbled to 1.2% in the second quarter, below the 2% forecast last month and 9.8% a year earlier, due to costs related with clearing out excess merchandise. Retail Earnings - Macy's Inc cut its full-year sales and profit forecasts on Tuesday, with the company saying it will need to offer more discounts to get rid off excess inventories of casual and athleisure apparel, even as demand for luxury products holds up. - Macy's inventories were up 7% at the end of the second quarter, compared with a year earlier - The company said it expects fiscal 2022 adjusted earnings of $4.00 to $4.20 per share, compared with its previous outlook of $4.53 to $4.95 per share. - Comparable sales at Macy's upscale Bloomingdale's department stores rose 5.8% in the second quarter, while they rose 7.6% at its luxury beauty outlet Blue Mercury. Bed Bath and Yuck - Stock slammed - Was at $30 high - - Ryan Cohen (Started the Gamma Sqeeze) sold ALL shares - Stock off by ??? - Down Sub $9 AMC - Issues new shares, dividend, screwing around with preferreds - Stock was $28 last week - Now sub $10 Zoom Earnings - Guiding Down - Not much good to say (Stock off by 16%) - It was fun while it lasted - Stock $81 (ATH was $581) Auto Sadness - Dodge will discontinue its gas-powered Challenger and Charger muscle cars at the end of next year, marking the end of an era for the brand as it starts to transition to electric vehicles. - For several years, Dodge has warned that the end was coming for the gas-powered muscle cars due to emissions regulations. Dodge parent company Stellantis, formerly Fiat Chrysler, ranks the worst among major manufacturers for U.S. corporate average fuel economy and carbon emissions. 420 Stocks ... CLICK for list of "Pot Stocks" Stocks to watch: CGC, STZ, TLRY, CRON, MJ, NBEV Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? THE CTP for AirBNB (ABNB) *** NEW INTERACTIVE CHARTS *** Winners will be getting great stuff like the new DHUnplugged Shirts (Designed by Jimbo) - PLUS a one-of-a-kind DHUnplugged CTP Winner's certificate.. CLICK HERE FOR MORE CHARTS ON TRADING VIEW UPDATE - NEW ETF - Global X Millennials Thematic ETF Challenge! The top holdings of Global X Millennials Thematic ETF (MILN) include stocks many investors would expect, such as Facebook, LinkedIn and Amazon, which take advantage of the tech tendencies of millennials. But some names might be more surprising like real estate investment trusts AvalonBay Communities and Equity Residential, and Home Depot, which could benefit from millennials moving out of the home of their parents. We are creating the DH Old Codger Index Portfolio to compete against this new ETF to see how "old school" stocks do in comparison. Companies in our index will include: (updated names as of 8/29/16) We have the performance summary running (daily and since inception of 5/6/16) - DHOCI vs. Millennials ETF Battle CRYPTO LIMERICKS JCD Score () FED LIMERICKS JCD Score () See this week’s stock picks HERE Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter

TDI Podcast: Peter Schiff’s BIG Market Call (#778)
Chart action – overhead resistance too much to beat. UK inflation running on the wrong side of the road. Yields higher – reasonable, but low quality stocks higher – what is wrong with this picture? Big Calls on the market – with our guest, Peter Schiff – Europacific Capital. Peter Schiff began his investment career […]

DHUnplugged #619: Dire Warnings
Up, Up and Away. When everyone thinks there is more downside, this happens. China economics are weak and probably getting weaker. Peter Schiff and others warn about what will come next… Dire predictions and buoyant markets – with a side of short squeeze. PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter Warm Up - ESG Finally Getting a Probe - Big Week for Retail (Earnings) - Peloton - Restructuring and  changing prices again - Can't keep this market down - well, at least for a while.. Market Update - Fed continues to press for higher rates - China issues a surprise rate cut (minor) - The Bear Bounce? New Rally - Lows are In? - China's Pain is Oil's Pain - OH - The Squeeze is On! - But Still seeing Dire Warnings about what is to come... - Musk comes Tweets he is buying.. At 8:01PM COMING UP THIS WEEK ON TDI Podcast - Peter Schiff Big Calls - Peter Schiff doesn’t think the Fed can beat the current inflationary pressure America is dealing with today. “Not only can’t the Fed win a fight against inflation without causing a recession, it can’t do so without causing a far worse financial crisis than the one we had in 2008,” - “Worse still, a war against inflation can’t be won if there are any bailouts or stimulus to ease the pain,” Where to begin this week?https://www.dhunplugged.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/08/CAPE_20220816.jpg Now this is interesting - Market Valuation... CAPE RATIO The SQUEEEEEZE - Here we go again - low-quality, High Short-interest stocks getting the love - BBBY up 200% past couple weeks, 65% TODAY! - Party City up 27% TODAY - FUBOTV, Blue Apron, My Size, ThredUp, Cruise Lines (after secondary offerings), GameStop on the move too.... - What does this mean? Markets - So many overbought readings - Multi-Month Highs - Valuations? - What is the great spirit that is moving things - why so bullish all of a sudden? ELON! - 8:01PM (After hours markets closed) - - "Also, I’m buying Manchester United ur welcome" --- Is he serious? News reports are unclear - no one knows for sure what this is all about Earnings - Home Depot - beats (significantly lowered expectations - low bar) ---- Earnings Growth 8% YoY, Revenue 6.5% ------Higher product prices drove average spending per transaction up more than 9%, even as customer transactions at its stores dropped 3%, helping the company record its highest ever quarterly sales and earnings. - Walmart - same story as Home Depot (management did not downgrade any further this time) ---- Earnings - slightly lower than 1-year ago, revenue growth 8.4% - Shoppers are shopping, looks like they are buying less higher priced products is the story WMT Beat Lowered Earnings Estimates WMT Estimates Housing - Stinks - The National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index dropped 6 points to 49 this month, its eighth straight monthly decline. - The index has not been in negative territory since a very brief plunge at the start of the Covid pandemic. Before that, it hadn't been negative since June 2014. - Regionally, on a three-month moving average, builder confidence in the Northeast fell 9 points to 56, and dropped 3 points in the Midwest to 49. In the South it fell 7 points to 63, and in the West, where home prices are highest, it declined 11 points to 51. - The biggest hurdle for buyers right now is affordability Peleton - Peloton Interactive Inc said on Friday it would cut jobs, shut stores and raise prices on its exercise equipment including treadmills and top-end bikes as it undertakes a company-wide revamp to shore up its revenue and improve cash flow. - Shifting final mile delivery to third-party logistics providers will reduce per-product delivery costs by up to 50% - The company is also raising prices of its Bike+ and Tread machines in five markets, including the United States and Canada - The company, which lowered the prices for its products earlier this year, said it would now raise prices by $500 to $2,495 on Bike+ and by $800 to $3,495 on Tread in the United States. More Peloton - A U.S. judge on Thursday said Peloton Interactive Inc must face a proposed class action lawsuit accusing the bike and treadmill maker of misleading customers about the "ever-growing" size of its library of on-demand fitness classes. - The lawsuit stemmed from Peloton's March 2019 decision to purge more than half of its estimated 12,000 on-demand classes, after music publishers sued the company for using copyrighted songs in its workout videos without proper licensing. ESG Hoo-Hah - US regulators are expanding their crackdown on misleading labels of investment products with a probe focused on whether managers of funds that are marketed as sustainable are trading away their right to vote on environmental, social and governance issues. - For the past several months, Securities and Exchange Commission enforcement lawyers have been peppering firms offering ESG funds with queries, including how they lend out their shares and whether they recall them before corporate elections, according to four people with knowledge of the matter. The practice lets asset managers earn fees that benefit investors, but it can also impact the ability to cast ballots. China - Feeling the Pain - China's economy unexpectedly slowed in July, with activity indicators from industrial output to retail sales missing forecasts by large margins - Industrial output grew 3.8% in July from a year earlier, after expanding 3.9% in June, data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) showed on Monday. That compared with a 4.6% increase expected by analysts in a Reuters poll. - 19% unemployment for 16-24 yr old (record high) - Growth in factory output in July slowed to 3.8% over a year ago, down 0.1 percentage point from the previous month, according to the National Bureau of Statistics. Growth in consumer spending fell to 2.7%, down 0.4 percentage points from June. - Sales of housing and other commercial real estate fell 28.8% from a year earlier. - The People’s Bank of China cut its rate on a one-year loan to 2.75% from 2.85% and injected an extra 400 billion yuan ($60 billion) into lending markets after growth in factory output and retail sales weakened in July and home sales fell by double digits. More China - PANIC! - Mayhem unfolded in an Ikea in Shanghai as health authorities tried to lock down the store on Saturday and quarantine those on site after learning someone who had been in contact with a Covid-19 patient had visited. - News of the flash shut down sent shoppers fleeing and screaming in an effort to get out of the building before the doors were locked, videos on social media showed. COVID - Britain has become the first country to approve a COVID-19 vaccine that targets both the original and Omicron variant of the virus. - The the UK medicines regulator (MHRA) approved the so-called bivalent vaccine made by U.S. drug company Moderna as a booster for adults. Meanwhile - CDC changes COVID protocols in US. Retail Earnings - Home Depot - Coming Up: TJX, TGT, WMT, LOWES, ROST Where Are They Moving? - American earnings more than $200,000 are moving to these states 2020 Study Final: Florida: 20,263 Texas: 5,356 Arizona: 5,268 North Carolina: 4,713 South Carolina: 3,967 Tennessee: 2,743 Colorado: 2,624 Nevada: 2,331 Idaho: 2,055 Utah: 1,503 Jaime Dimon - Walking It Back - Still Unhappy - Dimon reportedly said on a client call last week that the economy was "strong" but "storm clouds" were on the horizon, including federal monetary policies, Russia's invasion of Ukraine, and rising oil prices. (Better than a Hurricane!) - "Consumers' balance sheets are in good shape," he said. "Businesses are equally in good shape. When you forecast, you have to think differently. It is a bad mistake to say, 'Here is my single-point forecast.'" - Dimon has estimated the chances of a "soft landing" to be about 10% and the probability of a "harder landing" or "mild recession" to be closer to 20 to 30%. He also reportedly estimated a 20- to 30% chance of a "harder recession" and a 20- to 30% chance of "something worse." The Concorde II? Here comes BOOM - Concorde retired in 2003 (Cruised at Mach 2.04) - Overture will run on 100% sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) as it flies at Mach 1.7 over the ocean, shuttling between 68-80 passengers up to nearly 5,000 miles. - So far, Boom says two airlines and the United States Air Force have signed on to purchase Overture airlines. - United Airlines says it will buy 15 aircraft once safety, operating and safety requirements are met, with options to purchase 35 more. (Mach 1.7) - NYC to London - 3 hours - Los Angeles to Sydney - 8 hours - Seattle to Tokyo - 4.5 hours Drugs - Drugmakers are launching new medicines at record-high prices this year, a Reuters analysis has found, highlighting their pricing power even as Congress moves to cut the $500 billion-plus annual bill for prescription drugs in the United States. - The median annual price of 13 novel drugs approved for chronic conditions by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration so far this year is $257,000, Reuters found. Big Question::::: - Bear Market Bounce or New Bull Market? - DJIA off 7% YTD, NASDAQ off 16% - UP FROM LOWS DJIA   15%  NASDAQ +25%    (Over 60 day Period) Inflation Reduction Act - Will it help fight inflation? If so -= estimate on how long it will take? - YEARS AND YEARS! 420 Stocks ... CLICK for list of "Pot Stocks" Stocks to watch: CGC, STZ, TLRY, CRON, MJ, NBEV Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? ANNOUNCING THE WINNER OF CTP for AirBNB (ABNB) *** NEW INTERACTIVE CHARTS *** Winners will be getting great stuff like the new DHUnplugged Shirts (Designed by Jimbo) - PLUS a one-of-a-kind DHUnplugged CTP Winner's certificate.. CLICK HERE FOR MORE CHARTS ON TRADING VIEW UPDATE - NEW ETF - Global X Millennials Thematic ETF Challenge! The top holdings of Global X Millennials Thematic ETF (MILN) include stocks many investors would expect, such as Facebook, LinkedIn and Amazon, which take advantage of the tech tendencies of millennials. But some names might be more surprising like real estate investment trusts AvalonBay Communities and Equity Residential, and Home Depot, which could benefit from millennials moving out of the home of their parents. We are creating the DH Old Codger Index Portfolio to compete against this new ETF to see how "old school" stocks do in comparison. Companies in our index will include: (updated names as of 8/29/16) We have the performance summary running (daily and since inception of 5/6/16) - DHOCI vs. Millennials ETF Battle CRYPTO LIMERICKS JCD Score () FED LIMERICKS JCD Score () See this week’s stock picks HERE Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter

TDI Podcast: FOBI to FOMO (#777)
Bangarang! CPI drops down to 8.5%! NO INFLATION (LOL)! The consumer remain strong – but what about that credit? Reboot, reset and open up the mind to the possibilities. We don’t know what we don’t know. Let’s move toward financial independence! Looking for style diversification? More information on the TDI Managed Growth Strategy – https://thedisciplinedinvestor.com/blog/tdi-strategy/ […]

DHUnplugged #618: Backward-Walkers
Markets just don’t know how to read the current backdrop – so many crosscurrents. Fed speakers continue to press on with their high hopes for higher rates – walking it back Buyback frenzy coming? Softbank – horrible, simply horrible. PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter Warm Up - 8/8 - Happy Anniversary Mimi! - How You Like a Nice Warm Short Squeeze? ---- Highest Short Interest Getting BID BIGLY | - OLD MEME Stocks on fire - then cool off - Big YUGE moves on last week's picks - Recession? Employment Says: We Ain't Got No Stinking Recession Market Update - Credit Expanding - eating through savings? - Charts making the rounds.... - CPI coming Wednesday, PPI Thursday - Amazon acquiring this company - need delve deep - An interesting acquisition announcement today.. - Layoffs in Techland AND expense cuts Employment - HOT! - 500k+ added to the payrolls. - 3.5% Unemp Rate - Average Hourly Earnings +5% ! Post Employment Numbers - WALK IT BACK - FED parade of backwalkers continue - that is what they are Backward Walkers - Federal Reserve Governor Michelle Bowman said Saturday she supports the central bank's recent big interest rate increases and thinks they are likely to continue until inflation is subdued. -- "My view is that similarly sized increases should be on the table until we see inflation declining in a consistent, meaningful, and lasting way" ---- Very consistent with all of the other Backward-Walking Fed speakers Spending Bill -  Summary: The climate, healthcare and tax bill passed by the U.S. Senate over the weekend could shave corporate earnings slightly and make companies pull forward their share repurchase plans, while giving a boost to some sectors like electric vehicle makers, biofuel and solar energy - The $430 billion Inflation Reduction Act bill would impose a new excise tax on stock buybacks and a minimum 15% tax on corporations. - "The number one thing that stands out is that you're going to see an acceleration of buybacks before the end of this year," said Thomas Hayes, chairman and managing member of New York-based Great Hill Capital. "Companies would rather not pay that tax ... They have this window, and you can be assured they're going to take advantage of it." Pfizer - New Income Source - Pfizer Inc will buy blood disorder drugmaker Global Blood Therapeutics in a $5.4 billion deal, as it looks to boost its pipeline to combat a potential slowdown in COVID product demand that analysts anticipate from falling cases. - GBT makes Oxbryta which was first approved in 2019 to treat sickle cell disease among patients aged 12 years or older. - Sickle Cell Tech layoffs - Several companies have either discussed layoffs or stop hire mandates - Microsoft is asking managers to reduce employee expenses on business travel and outside training, according to WSJ Credit Card Debt - Americans have opened 233 million credit card accounts since April, the largest increase since 2008. - Credit card debt is up 13% since April, the largest increase since 2001. - Total credit card debt is set to cross $1 trillion for the first time ever. - "Is the bubble is expanding?" - The Kobeissi Letter HOT Chart - Everyone is doing these.... - Comparing 2006-2009 to today (markets) Dreaded DJIA Chart Another one.... Another One Berkshire - good and bad - Operating earnings - It marked a 38.8% increase from the same quarter a year ago. - However, the company posted a $53 billion loss on its investments during the quarter. ----- Buffet again asked investors to not focus on the quarterly fluctuations in its equity investments. - - "The amount of investment gains/losses in any given quarter is usually meaningless and delivers figures for net earnings per share that can be extremely misleading to investors who have little or no knowledge of accounting rules," Berkshire said in a statement. - Berkshire said it spent approximately $1 billion in share repurchases during the second quarter, bringing the six-month total to $4.2 billion. ELON - Still in the news - Elon Musk on Saturday challenged Twitter Inc Chief Executive Officer Parag Agrawal to a public debate about the percentage of bots on the social media platform. - Uhhhhh - isn't that what is going on? - "Let him prove to the public that Twitter has <5% fake or spam daily users!," Musk said in a tweet. - Big issue moving forward is wheter the banks will fund this deal. --- If they do fund, way overpriced. If they do not fund - back dealings and other companies may look elsewhere for deal funding. Amazon - BUYING - Spying? - Amazon is acquiring iRobot for $61 a share, an all-cash deal that values the Roomba maker at $1.7 billion, the companies announced Friday. - Interesting acquisition - perhaps one of the bigger sellers on Amazon - HOWEVER - some discussion about they real reason that they are buying this company is so that they can MAP YOUR HOUSE - Amazon with Alexa, Ring and Eero is already in American homes. Adding iRobot’s mapping technology will further its understanding of what takes place in those households. - A Bloomberg article suggests that Amazon may seek  to monetize the data to sell to marketers. “The size of your house is a pretty good proxy for your wealth. A floor covered in toys means you likely have kids. A household without much furniture is a household to which you can try to sell more furniture. This is all useful intel for a company such as Amazon which, you may have noticed, is in the business of selling stuff.” More Amazon -- The Lollipop Hustle - Dum-Dums (Spangler Candy Company) cheaper on Amazon through 3rd party than direct. ---- DIVERTING (Getting order, buy from other outlets and have it shipped directly) --- SO, if products can be purchased somewhere at lover price - why is this a problem? Isn't this the whole point of the 3rd parties? -------- IF you do not want your products sold for less, don't sell them for less to others. From MonkeyPox to Polio?? - Hundreds of other people could have polio after an adult in a suburb of New York City caught the virus and suffered paralysis last month, the state's top health official said this week. - New York State Health Commissioner Mary Bassett warned that the confirmed polio case in an unvaccinated adult, coupled with the detection of the virus in sewage outside the nation's largest city could, indicate a bigger outbreak is underway. ------ Can we discuss sewage testing? - The U.S. was declared polio free in 1979 and a case had not originated in the country since then, but travelers have occasionally brought the virus into the U.S., according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Some earnings news - Upstart misses by $0.07, misses on revs; guides Q3 EPS below consensus, revs below consensus --- Previously guided down last month and already leaking - Nvidia - Pre-announced ahead of 8/24 earnings - warned its Q2 revenue will be $6.7 billion versus its prior outlook of $8.10 billion due primarily to a lower sell-in of gaming products. Lemonade from Lemons - French drought creating a big win for SALT Farmers - Guerande's snow-white Fleur de Sel (‘flower of salt’), which crystallizes on the water's surface, is one of the finer salts on world markets, retailing in the United States at over $100 a kilogram ($40 per pound) - Fleur de sel or flor de sal is a salt that forms as a thin, delicate crust on the surface of seawater as it evaporates. Fleur de sel has been collected since ancient times, and was traditionally used as a purgative and salve. It is now used as a finishing salt to flavor and garnish food Deal Time - AppLovin has submitted a compelling non-binding proposal to the Board of Directors of Unity Software (U) to combine AppLovin with Unity in a transaction where each outstanding share of Unity common stock would be exchanged for 1.152 shares of AppLovin Class A voting common stock and 0.314 shares of AppLovin Class C non-voting common stock. - Could be some anti-trust and it is an all stock deal - Has not been agreed to yet by both parties - Would expect Unity to want more - but Applovin pockets not too deep Crytpo - Hack Attack - Thieves stole an estimated $190 million from U.S. crypto firm Nomad last week. - It was the seventh hack of 2022 to target an increasingly important cog in the crypto machine: Blockchain "bridges" - strings of code that help move crypto coins between different applications. - So far this year, hackers have stolen crypto worth some $1.2 billion from bridges - Perhaps start with solid code/hack proof and then build the bridge (seems like bridge built from top down) Softbank - Vision Fund - Losing all sorts of money - In fact - largest loss ever. - SoftBank’s quarterly losses, worth around 3.2 trillion yen ($24.5 billion), were its largest in history - took back almost all gains made since 2017 Vision Fund Cumulative Gains 420 Stocks ... CLICK for list of "Pot Stocks" Stocks to watch: CGC, STZ, TLRY, CRON, MJ, NBEV Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? CTP for AirBNB (ABNB) *** NEW INTERACTIVE CHARTS *** Winners will be getting great stuff like the new DHUnplugged Shirts (Designed by Jimbo) - PLUS a one-of-a-kind DHUnplugged CTP Winner's certificate.. CLICK HERE FOR MORE CHARTS ON TRADING VIEW UPDATE - NEW ETF - Global X Millennials Thematic ETF Challenge! The top holdings of Global X Millennials Thematic ETF (MILN) include stocks many investors would expect, such as Facebook, LinkedIn and Amazon, which take advantage of the tech tendencies of millennials. But some names might be more surprising like real estate investment trusts AvalonBay Communities and Equity Residential, and Home Depot, which could benefit from millennials moving out of the home of their parents. We are creating the DH Old Codger Index Portfolio to compete against this new ETF to see how "old school" stocks do in comparison. Companies in our index will include: (updated names as of 8/29/16) We have the performance summary running (daily and since inception of 5/6/16) - DHOCI vs. Millennials ETF Battle CRYPTO LIMERICKS JCD Score () FED LIMERICKS JCD Score () See this week’s stock picks HERE Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter


1 2 3 4