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TDI Podcast: Inside Wall Street’s Secrets (#776)
Frank Curzio is our guest – you have to listen to this overdub sample of Frank – he rocks it! STONKS – are they back? Ignoring the Fed’s Message – Let’s focus only on what we want to hear as tech is making a run – from oversold to now, overbought. What happened to CAPITULATION? […]

DHUnplugged #617: MEME Stonks Part 2
Markets are getting a bit crazy to the upside now… Clearly the short squeeze gang is on the prowl. Bifurcation – rates separating from inflation concerns. Global economies are getting worse as higher costs are really crimping consumers. A hard look at what is happening around the world. PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter Warm Up - Biden had COVID again (How does that happen actually?) - Market KRI +4 (3 days with cluster formation) - A GIGANTIC walk-back by the Fed - More earnings this week - winners and losers - STONKS - Say it ... STONKS Market Update - JUMPIN' July - big finish| - On not so great news... GDP -0.9% - back to back negative quarters. - China looking bleak - could mean more stimulative measures? - Hong Kong GDP shrank - German manufacturing - you guessed it.... - Home prices in Australia - whooops... ----- Fed walking it back - sending out the DOVES to speak HAWKISH Weird Chart - Odd Curve Odd Chart ABOVE - WHY? - Expectations are that we are near or in a recession - Further expectations that the Fed will raise then have to cut - sometime perhaps in 2023 - Bond being bought - Recession fears outweigh rate hike fears - US still bringing in foreign money (safety play) - NO CONFIDENCE IN ADMINISTRATION Let's look at Global ECO - Hong Kong's economy contracted 1.4% in the second quarter from the same period a year earlier, advance government data showed on Monday, as exports and investments remained sluggish, and COVID-19 weighed on a wide range of economic activity. - Germany's manufacturing sector contracted in July for the first time in over two years, hurt by a deepening slump in new orders that darkens the outlook for Europe's largest economy - - - S&P Global's final Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for manufacturing, which accounts for about a fifth of Germany's economy, fell to 49.3 from 52.0 in June - Australian home prices slid for a third month in July and the pace quickened as Sydney suffered its worst decline in almost 40 years amid rising borrowing costs and a cost-of-living crisis. (Prices were still 8.0% higher for the year reflecting huge gains made over 2021 and early 2022.) - China's factory activity contracted unexpectedly in July after bouncing back from COVID-19 lockdowns in the prior month, as fresh virus flare-ups and a darkening global outlook weighed on demand, an official survey showed. - - - The official manufacturing purchasing managers' Index (PMI) stood at 49 in July, down from 50.2 in June, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) said on Sunday. - Pakistan imports fell by more than a third in July after a ban on non-essentials, the finance minister said on Sunday, adding the improved trade situation will reduce pressure on the struggling rupee. - - - July imports fell to $5 billion, down 35% from June's record monthly high of $7.7 billion -- South Korea's consumer inflation sped up to a nearly 24-year high in July Meanwhile - US Central Bank DOVE - Neel Kashkari, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, said the Fed had more work to do in trying to control price increases. - “I’m surprised by markets’ interpretation,” Mr. Kashkari said in an interview. “The committee is united in our determination to get inflation back down to 2 percent, and I think we’re going to continue to do what we need to do until we are convinced that inflation is well on its way back down to 2 percent — and we are a long way away from that.” - ALSO: Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester (voting FOMC member) says inflation is not going to come down quickly; she is seeing "little signs" of progress on inflation; says she must see convincing evidence that inflation is coming down before stopping rate hikes Earnings - Better than Feared - Tech earnings boosted shares last week as they did come in better in general (some not so good) - Amazon, Apple gave decent guidance. - Amazon did not see any consumer slowdown (Much different than Walmart/Target) - Match miss - down 22% - Airbnb - decent quarter - taking down stock - Starbucks conference call update: despite inflation, company sees no measurable reduction in consumer spending or trading down - PayPal rocks - buyback, activist investor involved share higher - AMD - earnings nothing too bad, but stock ran up BIG into earnings - falls after hours Earnings Amazing! - Exxon, Chevron - blowouts - Posted record revenue on Friday, bolstered by surging crude oil and natural gas prices and following similar results for European giants - Exxon outpaced its rivals with second-quarter net income of $17.9 billion, several billion dollars ahead of its previous record reached in 2012 - Exxon committed to buybacks - Companies will now have to deal with the WINDFALL tax BS.... UBER - Loss per share: $1.33 - Revenue: $8.07 billion vs. $7.39 billion estimated, according to a Refinitiv survey of analysts. - Stock up 12% Best Investment EVER! - A single winning ticket for a Mega Millions lottery jackpot of $1.337 billion, the second-largest in U.S. history, was sold in Illinois - The ticket was sold at the Speedway fuel and convenience store on East Touhy Avenue in Des Plaines, Illinois, a Chicago suburb. - $780 million upfront or $42 million annually for 30 years.... WHICH?????? STONKS - ARE BACK! - HKD - Now valued over $300 Billion (15,000% gain since IPO in mid July) AMTD Digital Inc. designs and develops a digital platform to provide financial, media, content and marketing, and investment solutions. It offers digital banking and insurance technology platforms for consumers and small and medium-sized enterprises; and SpiderNet ecosystem, a platform to enhance their investor communication, investor relations, and corporate communication to enhance their valuation. The company's platform monitors portfolio companies, such as tracking of business and technology development, competitive landscape, latest technological trends, and economic risks, and financial analysis. The company was incorporated in 2019 and is based in Central, Hong Kong. AMTD Digital Inc. operates as a subsidiary of AMTD Group Company Limited. HKD AMTD - Curious Coincidence? AMTD Digital QUESTIONS!!!!!!!!!! - CFO of both companies: Mr. Ho Sum Zee - Companies related, in the ame building in Hong Kong - What is wrong with this picture More Stonks - Ford Motor's stock on Monday added to its best month since the Great Recession in 2009, signaling a significant swing for the automaker this year. - Shares of the Detroit automaker closed Monday at $15.34, up 4.4%. The gains added to the stock increasing by 31.9% in July – marking the best monthly percentage gain for Ford's shares since 127.4% in April 2009 Going APE over MonkeyPox - Global emergency?? - The governor of the State of New York Kathy Hochul late on Friday declared an emergency in the state over the continued spread of monkeypox. - Not really life threatening, but people are a bit burned by the last go round with a global pandemic... - "AT-RISK" groups... ROLEX ANYONE? - The collapse in cryptocurrencies is easing supply of the most sought after watches on the second-hand market, depressing prices for hard-to get-Patek Philippe and Rolex models. McFlation - McDonald's will increase the price of its cheeseburger by 20% in Britain, in the first price hike for the popular item in 14 years as it responds to soaring inflation. - Mc D's also raised U.S. prices by 6% last year, in line with increases at other consumer-focused companies which are facing higher inflation amid strong post-pandemic demand and supply chain disruption. OIL/GAS/EUROPE - Big trouble - seems like this is going to be a problem for a while - Scratch head: how does this end? - Crude for heat? Heating Oil? Nat Gas prices? - COLD winter in Europe Bad plan... - The U.S.emergency crude oil stockpile fell by 4.6 million barrels last weekto its lowest level since May 1985, according to the Department of Energy on Monday. - Crude held in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) dropped to 469.9 million barrels for the week ended July 29, according to DOE data, in the smallest weekly withdrawal sinceMay. All the barrels sold during the week were sour crude oil. - (U.S. President Joe Biden in March set a plan to release 1 million barrels per day (bpd) over six months from the SPR to tackle high fuel prices that have contributed to soaring inflation.) When has this happened in recent time? (modern Finance?) - Hackers drained almost $200 million in cryptocurrency from Nomad, a tool that lets users swap tokens from one blockchain to another, in yet another attack highlighting weaknesses in the decentralized finance space. - Nomad acknowledged the exploit in a tweet late Monday. - "We are aware of the incident involving the Nomad token bridge," the startup said. "We are currently investigating and will provide updates when we have them." 420 Stocks ... CLICK for list of "Pot Stocks" Stocks to watch: CGC, STZ, TLRY, CRON, MJ, NBEV Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? CTP for AirBNB (ABNB) *** NEW INTERACTIVE CHARTS *** Winners will be getting great stuff like the new DHUnplugged Shirts (Designed by Jimbo) - PLUS a one-of-a-kind DHUnplugged CTP Winner's certificate.. CLICK HERE FOR MORE CHARTS ON TRADING VIEW UPDATE - NEW ETF - Global X Millennials Thematic ETF Challenge! The top holdings of Global X Millennials Thematic ETF (MILN) include stocks many investors would expect, such as Facebook, LinkedIn and Amazon, which take advantage of the tech tendencies of millennials. But some names might be more surprising like real estate investment trusts AvalonBay Communities and Equity Residential, and Home Depot, which could benefit from millennials moving out of the home of their parents. We are creating the DH Old Codger Index Portfolio to compete against this new ETF to see how "old school" stocks do in comparison. Companies in our index will include: (updated names as of 8/29/16) We have the performance summary running (daily and since inception of 5/6/16) - DHOCI vs. Millennials ETF Battle CRYPTO LIMERICKS JCD Score () FED LIMERICKS JCD Score () See this week’s stock picks HERE Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter

TDI Podcast: Economic Theater (#775)
Stocks rally into Fed – and then blasted higher on a dovish take on Powell. Tech earnings – looking pretty good – well, better than expected. Bond yield tumble, the USD heads lower and asking about the “R” Word. CHECK IT OUT! This episode is sponsored by Masterworks. Sign up today and use the Promo […]

DHUnplugged #616: Peak Musk
Another World Health Emergency. A recession by any other name. Enough of Mr. Musk already – what else could there be anyway? Earnings and Eco coming hot and heavy. PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter Warm Up - Better vibe - markets are getting more comfortable ? - Biden has a case of Vid - MonkeyPox - Update from WHO - Are we there yet - Peak Musk ? - Recession - "Not Inevitable" - 10yr Yield 2.78%! Market Update - Big week for earnings and ECO - HUGE WEEK - Tech earnings in the spotlight - watch ad biz - Markets having a great month - Fed tomorrow can change that - but odds are they stay the course - IMF Downgrade and a remarkable housing number - BIG MOVE AFTER HOURS - MSFT, GOOG Miss - but commentary about strong demand overshadows slowdown - Chipotle moves higher on commentary about potejtial for MORE price hikes REMEMBER: Closest to the Pin - get your entry in!! BIG WEEK - A Really Big Week - This week something like 40% of S&P 500 companies are going to report this week - GDP, PCE, Durable goods, Case-Shiller, Consumer Confidence..... Great month so far - due for a bounce from really oversold conditions - Financials +5%, Tech +7.5%, Homebuilders +12% (even with drop in NAHB and housing market) Consumer Disc +12%, Utilities -0.20%, Bitcoin +17% (Gold and Silver DOWN) Rate Odds - Wednesday at 2PM - 77.5% of a 0.75% rate hike, 22.5% for 1.00% hike - ZERO PERCENT PROBABILITY for 0.50% Case Shiller Home Prices - May S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index 20.5% vs. 20.8% consensus; prior 21.2% Not Inevitable - Still trying to stick this down our throats - U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said on Sunday that U.S. economic growth is slowing and acknowledged there was the risk of a recession, but she said a downturn was not inevitable. - U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said on Sunday that U.S. economic growth is slowing and acknowledged there was the risk of a recession, but she said a downturn was not inevitable. BUT: - IMF's World Economic Outlook revised down; risks to the outlook 'overwhelmingly' to the downside - The baseline forecast is for growth to slow from 6.1 percent last year to 3.2 percent in 2022, 0.4 percentage point lower than in the April 2022 World Economic Outlook. - Lower growth earlier this year, reduced household purchasing power, and tighter monetary policy drove a downward revision of 1.4 percentage points in the United States. - In China, further lockdowns and the deepening real estate crisis have led growth to be revised down by 1.1 percentage points, with major global spillovers. - And in Europe, significant downgrades reflect spillovers from the war in Ukraine and tighter monetary policy. - In 2023, disinflationary monetary policy is expected to bite, with global output growing by just 2.9 percent. - The risks to the outlook are overwhelmingly tilted to the downside. AND............... - CNBC Fed Survey shows 55% probability of recession over the next 12 months; expects Fed to start cutting rates next year  But, Then There is This - White House puts out a blog - "How Do Economists Determine Whether the Economy Is in a Recession? " - What is a recession? While some maintain that two consecutive quarters of falling real GDP constitute a recession, that is neither the official definition nor the way economists evaluate the state of the business cycle. Instead, both official determinations of recessions and economists’ assessment of economic activity are based on a holistic look at the data—including the labor market, consumer and business spending, industrial production, and incomes. Based on these data, it is unlikely that the decline in GDP in the first quarter of this year—even if followed by another GDP decline in the second quarter—indicates a recession. - Recession probabilities are never zero, but trends in the data through the first half of this year used to determine a recession are not indicating a downturn. - - - Interesting timing with 2Q GDP coming this week. (Thursday) Some thoughts: - SNAP had a terrible quarter and the when the stock reported results at the end of last week - shares caved in hard. - This is not the first time that advertisers pulled back and the company will really need to rethink their strategy. - The fact that advertisers are being much more cautious is a sign that there is a spending issue that could become problematic. - SNAP shares down 35% - Earnings coming this week - META, GOOG, AAPL, MSFT Walmart - Retail - Bad news - Early interim report - before earnings 8/16/2022 - Company issues upside guidance for revenue - stoked by higher prices (inflation) - Company also issues downside guidance for earnings ( margin squeeze on inflation) - - - Co issues downside guidance for Q2 (Jul), sees EPS to decline 8 to 9% yr/yr, or about $1.62-1.64, excluding non-recurring items, vs. $1.81 S&P Capital IQ Consensus. - - - Co issues downside guidance for FY23 (Jan), sees EPS to decline 11 to 13% yr/yr, or about $5.62-5.75, excluding non-recurring items, vs. $6.39 S&P Capital IQ Consensus. - - - Excluding divestitures, adjusted earnings per share for the full year is expected to decline 10 to 12%. MonkeyPox - WHO: The rapidly spreading monkeypox outbreak represents a global health emergency - The WHO label - a "public health emergency of international concern" - is designed to sound an alarm that a coordinated international response is needed and could unlock funding and global efforts to collaborate on sharing vaccines and treatments. - The World Health Organization (WHO) has confirmed 14,000 cases of monkeypox worldwide, with five deaths reported in Africa - SIGA, EBS Peak Musk???? - Enough already...... - Tesla Inc has received a second subpoena from the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission over its Chief Executive Elon Musk's tweets in 2018 about taking the company private, the electric automaker disclosed in a regulatory filing on Monday. - Twitter saga - The Wall Street Journal said that Mr Musk was engaged in a brief affair late last year with Ms Shanahan. - - - This prompted Mr Brin to file for divorce earlier this year and ended the long friendship between the two high-profile technology billionaires. - Tesla dumps 75% of their Bitcoin - for a loss. $170 million impairment charge on losses (not sure if that is the extent of losses or just amount taken as impairment MUSK MONDAY TWEET - "The amount of attention on me has gone supernova, which super sucks. Unfortunately, even trivial articles about me generate a lot of clicks Will try my best to be heads down focused on doing useful things for civilization." - EVEN HE KNOWS PEAK MUSK Peak Rates - or just a breather? - With all the fear over inflation - rates coming down - Yield curve still flat after 2 year - Inverted for most of curve - 2/10 negative - BUT - 10-year down from 3.5 in March to 2.80% now Some Housing numbers - U.S. existing home sales fell for a fifth straight month in June to the lowest level in two years as record-high prices and fast-rising interest rates make buying a home too expensive for a growing share of American households. - Meanwhile Homebuilders have a great month - lesson to be learned --- Fed rates more important looking ahead (higher rates is bad for homebulders) --- NAHB and confidence could be a bottom call scenario Nice or Weird? - Raising Cane's CEO Todd Graves said that he has purchased 50,000 Mega Millions tickets and promised to share the $810 million prize with all of his employees if one of the tickets hits the jackpot. - Should one the tickets win the jackpot, every employee of the fast food chain could walk away with thousands of dollars, Raising Cane's said in a news release provided to CBS News. (3,000+ employees) Something to Ponder - Natural Gas price squeeze could lead to additional switching to crude from gas. - Russia could really put the screws with delays or cut of gas pipeline and that could be problems for global crude pricing One more... - Closed Loop - some companies in parts of China will require little movement of employees or possible live and work on site. Panama - Food Costs - Getting Real - The Panamanian government announced on Monday it will regulate the price of 72 food items following weeks of angry protests and street blockades demanding the government take measures to stem the quickly rising cost of living. - "With the regulation of the 72 products, the cost of the basic food basket would decrease by 30%, a savings of more than $80," the president's office said in a statement, after the government and powerful unions, with the Catholic Church acting as a mediator, reached an agreement. 420 Stocks ... CLICK for list of "Pot Stocks" Stocks to watch: CGC, STZ, TLRY, CRON, MJ, NBEV Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Announcing a New CTP for AirBNB (ABNB) *** NEW INTERACTIVE CHARTS *** Winners will be getting great stuff like the new DHUnplugged Shirts (Designed by Jimbo) - PLUS a one-of-a-kind DHUnplugged CTP Winner's certificate.. CLICK HERE FOR MORE CHARTS ON TRADING VIEW UPDATE - NEW ETF - Global X Millennials Thematic ETF Challenge! The top holdings of Global X Millennials Thematic ETF (MILN) include stocks many investors would expect, such as Facebook, LinkedIn and Amazon, which take advantage of the tech tendencies of millennials. But some names might be more surprising like real estate investment trusts AvalonBay Communities and Equity Residential, and Home Depot, which could benefit from millennials moving out of the home of their parents. We are creating the DH Old Codger Index Portfolio to compete against this new ETF to see how "old school" stocks do in comparison. Companies in our index will include: (updated names as of 8/29/16) We have the performance summary running (daily and since inception of 5/6/16) - DHOCI vs. Millennials ETF Battle CRYPTO LIMERICKS JCD Score () FED LIMERICKS JCD Score () See this week’s stock picks HERE Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter

TDI Podcast: Penguins and Ostriches (#774)
The penguins are leading the charge – talking us into recession. Markets react and what are you doing? Not looking at your statements? Sticking your head in the sand? So many opportunities – let’s find them together. Listener questions and a wake up call. Looking for style diversification? More information on the TDI Managed Growth […]

DHUnplugged #615: Breaking Worse
Good news! Powell and Clarida cleared of any wrongdoing. That was a close one! Markets starting to rethink the doom and gloom? Earnings season colliding with rate hike worries. Mystery Chart – impressive run. Uber – terrible – not going to change their ways. PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter Warm Up - Earnings season begins this week - Mystery Chart - It is UP this year! - President Biden - No Headway during Saudi Trip - Saying goodbye to Ivana Trump - Heat Waves - How is your weather? Market Update - Reversal Alert - 0.75% < 1.00% new base and markets get excited --- If you think its a rally but it's not - It's Chiffon? (Commercial from the 70's) ---- Its not nice to fool mother nature - Bank Earnings - mixed bag. Hard to interpret due to loan loss provisions - Short Squeeze / rebalance ahead of earnings - UBER - disgusting practices - China is easing some rules - money available - How much more badder does the news have to get? - Yield Curve very inverted..... 2 year higher than 30 year... - BofA Global Fund Manager Survey revealed the lowest equity allocation since the Lehman Bros. bankruptcy and the highest cash levels since 2001. Announcing a new Closest to the Pin! Starting with Peak Pessimism - Investors slashed their exposure to risk assets to levels not seen even during the global financial crisis in a sign of full capitulation amid a “dire” economic outlook, according to Bank of America Corp.’s monthly fund manager survey. - A net 58% of fund managers said they’re taking lower than normal risks, a record that surpassed the survey’s global financial crisis levels. - Global growth and profit expectations sank to an all-time low, while recession expectations were at their highest since the pandemic-fueled slowdown in May 2020 - C A P I T U L A T I O N  -- - They are saying... Oil (2) - Oil prices near $96 $94    $99 - Bounced off support and USD weakens Coinage - Big weekend for coins - Bitcoin. ETH and others moving, 10, 20+% --- Story over weekend that Coinbase shutting down affiliate programs ---- Wild speculation that COIN could be next to be under financial pressure ----- Short Squeeze getting out of positions - why the weekend rally? Bank Earnings - No use in trying to look at headline beats/misses - Loan loss provisions down big then up big - over 1 year means that comparisons all screwed up - Generally major banks looking pretty good still - NIM good and revenues looking healthy - Concerns over economic slowdown and bad debt - co - Could be they overshot to downside - Goldman, Morgan look good - not much bad to say right now. Builder Confidence - Another story all together - We know from Redfin - prices coming down, existing homes flooding markets, sells getting worried - July NAHB Housing Market Index 55vs. 66 Briefing.com consensus; prior 67 - Builders confidence - see below - needs some discussion NAHB Mystery Chart - This stock is up this year - Well known, in DJIA - TECH! - Laggard for years... - Earnings out last night - stock not doing so good Mystery Chart More Stocks... - Single Stock ETF - Interesting concept - but not clear who this benefits. - Fees added to stocks that can be bought at low cost - Probably less volume and liquidity than the stock itself Netflix - After several quarters of horrible performance (company and stock) company about to report July 19 - Could there be a gold mine in the advertising side? - Teamed up with Microsoft - SIDEBAR: Heard someone talking about team ups/projects with MSFT - WHY? Because they are neutral and can be trusted as partner when building. (When did that happen?) - Back to adverts: If NFLX turns off the family sharing or changes and all those go ton advertisement supported - that could be genius! Bitcoin Blowup? - A 4.2 magnitude earthquake struck off the coast of El Salvador shortly after 7 p.m. on Saturday (0100 GMT on Sunday), the U.S. Geological Survey said. - Tremors were felt in the capital, San Salvador, according to a Reuters witness. No deaths or damage were immediately reported. - Even with big weekend move - this has been a terrible move by El Salvador - But maximalists love it! - Maybe they supercharged a mining operation and that is what led to big coin move over weekend? Everything as a Service? - BMW announced Functions on Demand - in vehicle subscriptions - Example Heated Seats... --- But may not have paid for that option when car bought - so just one demand - "If a vehicle is initially ordered with heated seats, that option will remain fully operational for the life of the vehicle," BMW said. It clarifies, "BMW Functions on Demand on the other hand is designed to offer premium features through software upload that use data and sensors from factory option hardware already built into BMW vehicles." - People freaking out about what is next... UBER- POS - The Department of Justice filed in court today a multi-million-dollar settlement agreement with Uber Technologies to resolve a lawsuit alleging that Uber violated the Americans with Disabilities Act (ADA). Under the agreement, Uber will offer several million dollars in compensation to more than 65,000 Uber users who were charged discriminatory fees due to disability. - Under the two-year agreement, Uber has committed to waive wait time fees for all Uber riders who certify that they (or someone they frequently travel with) need more time to get in an Uber car because of a disability. Uber also will ensure that refunds are easily available for anyone who does not have a waiver and is charged a wait time fee because of disability. CHINA - Stimulating - Big Story - Mortgage Payment Strike --- People pissed with property sector and  not paying mortgage payments (stalled property development projects) - Chinese regulators stepped up efforts to encourage lenders to extend loans to qualified real estate projects as the beleaguered property sector faced fresh risks from a widening mortgage-payment boycott on unfinished houses. More China - China's economy contracted sharply in the second quarter while annual growth also slowed significantly, highlighting the colossal toll on activity from widespread COVID lockdowns, which jolted industrial production and consumer spending. - Gross domestic product fell 2.6% in the second quarter from the previous quarter - more than expected - For the first half of the year, GDP grew 2.5%. Yellen - They Just Can't Stop With Bad Ideas - The United States will look for every opportunity to move ahead and enact a global minimum corporate tax agreement - Yellen told reporters on Saturday that finance officials from the Group of 20 major economies reached strong consensus about many issues, including the need to address a worsening food security crisis, despite differences over Russia's war in Ukraine that prevented the leaders from issuing a joint statement. - TALK IS CHEAP, BAD DECISIONS ARE EXPENSIVE US Dollar Peak? - Seems everyone on the side of the USD continuing its upward ascent - Euro near parity, Yen screaming lower... - 95% sentiment towards bull camp - But, if we start to see some change in ECB or BOJ stance - USD could tumble ------ Follow Up - wrote that last night - already big move lower for USD after ECB hawkish comments - Good for multinationals, Gold/Silver Phew! That was a close one....(NOT) - Powell, Clarida cleared of wrongdoing in Fed trading controversy - No rules broken - all good - The report covered a period from 2019-21 when the two top-ranking officials traded stocks and funds while the central bank used monetary policy to influence financial markets. - "We did not find evidence to substantiate the allegations that former Vice Chair Clarida or you violated laws, rules, regulations, or policies related to trading activities as investigated by our office," Inspector General Mark Bialek told Powell in a letter. "Based on our findings, we are closing our investigation into the trading activities of former Vice Chair Clarida and you." 420 Stocks ... CLICK for list of "Pot Stocks" Stocks to watch: CGC, STZ, TLRY, CRON, MJ, NBEV Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Announcing a New CTP for AirBNB (ABNB) *** NEW INTERACTIVE CHARTS *** Winners will be getting great stuff like the new DHUnplugged Shirts (Designed by Jimbo) - PLUS a one-of-a-kind DHUnplugged CTP Winner's certificate.. CLICK HERE FOR MORE CHARTS ON TRADING VIEW UPDATE - NEW ETF - Global X Millennials Thematic ETF Challenge! The top holdings of Global X Millennials Thematic ETF (MILN) include stocks many investors would expect, such as Facebook, LinkedIn and Amazon, which take advantage of the tech tendencies of millennials. But some names might be more surprising like real estate investment trusts AvalonBay Communities and Equity Residential, and Home Depot, which could benefit from millennials moving out of the home of their parents. We are creating the DH Old Codger Index Portfolio to compete against this new ETF to see how "old school" stocks do in comparison. Companies in our index will include: (updated names as of 8/29/16) We have the performance summary running (daily and since inception of 5/6/16) - DHOCI vs. Millennials ETF Battle Cheesy - Greece on Thursday scored a win in its fight to protect their right to the term 'Feta' as Europe's top court reprimanded Denmark for not blocking local companies from using the name for sales outside the European Union. - Greece claims feta as part of its cultural heritage because it has made the sheep and goat milk cheese for 6,000 years. CRYPTO LIMERICKS JCD Score () FED LIMERICKS JCD Score () See this week’s stock picks HERE Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter

DHUnplugged #614: Chopping Block…
Oil taking a leg lower…. All eyes on CPI data and earnings this week Home prices are on the chopping block.. PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter Warm Up - Earnings season begins this week - Twitter Saga continues - or comes to an end? - Euro hits parity - Abortion pill companies heating up Market Update - Oil Crushed - down 20% since recent high - German consumer confidence - historic lows - IMF cuts its growth forecast for US to 2.3% from 2.9% - CPI data tomorrow - everyone bracing for a big number - VIX near 27 - not too high considering Oil - Oil prices near $96   $94  (looks like $93 support line - next stop if cannot hold) - Airlines Up, Cruise lines up (could be some short covering into earnings and due to oil prices) Robot Fish - Robot fish that "eat" microplastics may one day help to clean up the world's polluted oceans, says a team of Chinese scientists from Sichuan University in southwest China. - The black robot fish is irradiated by a light, helping it to flap its fins and wiggle its body. Scientists can control the fish using the light to avoid it crashing into other fish or ships. - If it is accidentally eaten by other fish, it can be digested without harm as it is made from polyurethane, which is also biocompatible, Wang said. Housing Update - Americans are canceling deals to buy homes at the highest rate since the start of the Covid pandemic. - The share of sale agreements on existing homes canceled in June was just under 15% of all homes that went under contract, according to a new report from Redfin. - That is the highest share since early 2020, when homebuying paused immediately, albeit briefly. Cancelations were at about 11% one year ago. - Higher mortgage rates and surging inflation are causing many potential homebuyers to reconsider their purchases. - Total mortgage application volume fell 6.5% last week compared with the previous week, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association's seasonally adjusted index. Demand hit the lowest level in 22 years. - Next Shoe to drop? Housing Prices on the chopping block....? Big Move - Electric vehicle startup Canoo (GOEV) said Tuesday Walmart has agreed to buy at least 4,500 of its upcoming electric delivery vans, in a significant win for the Texas-based vehicle maker. - Shares of Canoo were up more than 70% in premarket trading after the news was announced to trade above $4 per share. - Walmart has signed a "definitive agreement" to purchase at least 4,500, and possibly as many as 10,000, of its all-electric Lifestyle Delivery Vehicles, a small electric van designed for local delivery service, Canoo said. Bicycles - Peloton said Tuesday that it plans to exit all of its in-house manufacturing and instead will expand its current relationship with Taiwanese manufacturer Rexon Industrial, in a bid to turn the money-losing business around. - Peloton Chief Executive Officer Barry McCarthy said this is a step for the company to simplify its supply chain and fix its cost structure, which is a top priority. - "We believe that this along with other initiatives will enable us to continue reducing the cash burden on the business and increase our flexibility," McCarty said in a statement. Something is Wrong - London's Heathrow said it would cap the number of departing passengers at 100,000 a day this summer to try to limit traveler disruption as it struggles to cope with a rebound in demand. - Airlines at Britain's busiest airport have already responded to a government appeal to cut capacity but Heathrow said it needed them to go further. - It said airlines, baggage handlers and the airport could collectively serve 100,000 departing passengers, a number that had regularly been exceeded in recent weeks resulting in unacceptable levels of service. Looking Ahead - BANKS - Setting up for disappointment - Second quarter profits at big U.S. banks are expected to fall sharply from a year earlier on increased loan loss reserves, as the pandemic recovery gives way to a possible recession. - Analysts expect JPMorgan Chase & Co will report a 25% drop in profit on Thursday, while Citigroup Inc and Wells Fargo & Co will show 38% and 42% profit declines, respectively on Friday, according to Refinitiv I/B/E/S data. - Bank of America Corp, which like its peers has big consumer and business lending franchises, is expected to show a 29% drop in profit when it reports on July 18. - The plunge in profit stems from lenders adding to their reserves for expected loan losses, a reversal from a year earlier when they benefited from reducing those cushions as anticipated pandemic losses failed to materialize and the economy strengthened. Fed Hawks Change Tune - last week - Two of the Federal Reserve's most vocal hawks said they would support another 75 basis-point interest rate increase later this month but a downshift to a slower pace afterward, even as both downplayed the risk of higher borrowing costs pushing the U.S into recession. - St. Louis Fed President James Bullard also said a 75 basis-point hike at the U.S. central bank's next policy-setting meeting on July 26-27 would "make a lot of sense." - The move would bring the policy rate to a range of 2.25%-2.5%, about a percentage point short of the 3.5% level Bullard said he continues to advocate for by the end of the year. Twitter - Deal is off - So Elon says - Twitter fighting in court to get deal done - what will happen? - Whatever the outcome may be, the Tesla chief executive for now appears to be sitting on around $8.5 billion in cash raised from selling shares of the automaker late in April to finance the Twitter acquisition. In the last week of April, Musk sold 9.6 million Tesla shares at an average price of around $885 per share. - TWTR accuses Elon Musk of unleashing a spam army to trigger contract breach, seeks $44BN in damages - Was this just a way to sell shares of Tesla?????? - Twitter at $33 - so someone must think the deal will go through eventually Japan - Shinzo Abe, the former prime minister of Japan, was killed after being shot Friday while delivering a speech - Remember AbeOnomics? - Suspect said that Abe was member of church/org that his mother sent money to and eventually fell into financial ruin Celsius Crypto - Accused of fraud and Ponzi scheme - No argument here..... - Another platform - Vauld pauses withdrawals (but they also had a nice website) Europe - On high alert as Russia temporarily halts gas flows - Operator Nord Stream AG confirmed the maintenance works, which are scheduled to run from Monday through to July 21 - The Nord Stream 1 pipeline is Europe's single biggest piece of gas import infrastructure, carrying around 55 billion cubic meters of gas per year from Russia to Germany. - The EU, which receives roughly 40% of its gas via Russian pipelines, is trying to rapidly reduce its reliance on Russian hydrocarbons in response to President Vladimir Putin's months-long onslaught in Ukraine. More Europe - BAILOUTS - Germany's government will have the power to take stakes in utilities and impose emergency levies on consumers under proposed legal changes now under discussion - Ministers are scrambling to deal with the impact of soaring energy prices on electricity firms after Russia's invasion of Ukraine, with Economy Minister Robert Habeck recently warning of "a Lehman effect" as suppliers face soaring costs to meet obligations to customers. Remember Ron Johnson? (JC Penny's) - Enjoy Technology Inc , a Silicon Valley retailer led by former Apple Inc and JC Penney Co executive Ron Johnson, filed for bankruptcy protection on Thursday, fewer than nine months after going public through a special-purpose acquisition company (SPAC). - Founded by Johnson in 2014, Enjoy operates what it calls mobile retail stores that let customers buy smartphones and other technology that they can set up at home. Asia Inflation - South Korea's consumer prices rose more than expected in June to hit the fastest pace in nearly 24 years Abortion Pill - Perrigo Company (PRGO) said on Monday its HRA Pharma unit has asked the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) to approve a daily birth control pill for over-the-counter (OTC) sale, the first such request for this type of contraception. - The contraceptive is currently a prescription drug sold under the brand Opill. 420 Stocks ... CLICK for list of "Pot Stocks" Stocks to watch: CGC, STZ, TLRY, CRON, MJ, NBEV Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? The WINNER for the CTP for NIO (NIO) *** NEW INTERACTIVE CHARTS *** Winners will be getting great stuff like the new DHUnplugged Shirts (Designed by Jimbo) - PLUS a one-of-a-kind DHUnplugged CTP Winner's certificate.. CLICK HERE FOR MORE CHARTS ON TRADING VIEW UPDATE - NEW ETF - Global X Millennials Thematic ETF Challenge! The top holdings of Global X Millennials Thematic ETF (MILN) include stocks many investors would expect, such as Facebook, LinkedIn and Amazon, which take advantage of the tech tendencies of millennials. But some names might be more surprising like real estate investment trusts AvalonBay Communities and Equity Residential, and Home Depot, which could benefit from millennials moving out of the home of their parents. We are creating the DH Old Codger Index Portfolio to compete against this new ETF to see how "old school" stocks do in comparison. Companies in our index will include: (updated names as of 8/29/16) We have the performance summary running (daily and since inception of 5/6/16) - DHOCI vs. Millennials ETF Battle CRYPTO LIMERICKS Michael Trotter The price of LUNA went so high Bad investors all said “oh my” They invested their cash, got destroyed by the crash And then they all started to cry JCD Score (C) Justin Duiguid He fancies cyrpto a dud All jiddy for candles a’ blood Please allow me, To pronounceticate thee Sir Buzzkill of the F.U.D JCD Score (B) FED LIMERICKS JCD Score () See this week’s stock picks HERE Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter

TDI Podcast: Soul in The Game (#773)
Vitaliy Katsenelson is this week’s guest. We talk about the essence of life and how to gain purpose and meaning. New book alert! Soul in the game… Vitaliy Katsenelson was born and raised in Murmansk, Russia (the home for Russia‘s northern navy fleet, think Tom Clancy‘s Red October). Immigrated to the US from Russia in […]

DHUnplugged #613: Its A Recession Stupid!
From never going to stop – to let’s get busy. Yields plummet, oil sub-$100 and recession calls are everywhere. A great island story and much more. PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter Warm Up - New Month - 1/2 the year gone - Crypto still gets no love - more lending firms halt withdrawals - Investors looking for every excuse to sell - THANK YOU for Donations - that was very nice of all of you who participated - Back from Bahamas - Abacos - Guess who Andrew ran into? Market Update - Worst start for equity markets since 1970 - Worst start for bond markets EVER - Last week BBBY and RH earnings miss and outlook spook investors - Earnings season ahead - 7/14/22 JP Morgan starts it off - Watch out - mortgage demand hits the skids - WOW! Yields - WOW! Oil - Markets Go Crazy! Recession fears - Oil drops below $100 (remember how many were bullish?) - Yields - what is happening? 10-Yr @ 2.79% - Markets - WHAT A MOVE ON High-Multiple Tech (DOCU, RBLX, ZM, AFRM) - HUGE move on tech - DJIA recovers from 600 point loss - potential bottom in the making here. DEFLATIONARY = OIL Oil Chart DEFLATIONARY = Yields DOWN 10 Yr Treasury Deflationary = Copper - Copper fell to the lowest level in 17 months, with metals extending losses as global recession fears continue to damp the demand outlook for commodities. Weekend - Abacos Bahamas - Guess who Andrew ran into? - Shout out to Nippers Bar on Great Guana Cay - Johnny and Janice David Solomon Tesla - Disappointing quarter of deliveries, a record month of production, and now several weeks of downtime at multiple plants. - Possible $400 million impermanent charge due to losses on Bitcoin - Tesla will halt most production on its Model Y assembly line in Shanghai for the first two weeks of July, then stop the Model 3 line for a 20-day stretch starting July 18, MonkeyPox -WHO says not an issue - THEN, The World Health Organization says "sustained transmission" of monkeypox worldwide could see the virus begin to move into high-risk groups, such as pregnant women, immunocompromised people and children. - The virus has now been identified in more than 50 new countries outside the countries in Africa where it is endemic. - Epidemic - Pandemic? No Respect - Grayscale, which manages the world's largest bitcoin fund, said it would sue the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission after regulators turned down its bid to convert the investment vehicle into an exchange-traded fund. - The SEC on Wednesday rejected Grayscale's application for a spot bitcoin exchange-traded fund, citing a failure by the investment manager to answer questions about concerns around market manipulation. - The watchdog is concerned investors would lack sufficient protections under the Grayscale proposal. Korea Krypto - The nosedive in cryptocurrency markets has wiped out millions of dollars in funds stolen by North Korean hackers, four digital investigators say, threatening a key source of funding for the sanctions-stricken country and its weapons programmers. - Do you think the drop is purposeful? Working to smack bad actors? - One of North Korea’s cryptocurrency caches from a 2021 heist, which had been worth tens of millions of dollars, has lost 80% to 85% of its value in the last few weeks and is now worth less than $10 million Mortgages - Average loan size dropping as affordability becomes a problem - "Overall purchase activity has weakened in recent months due to the quick jump in mortgage rates, high home prices, and growing economic uncertainty," said Joel Kan, an MBA economist. "The average purchase loan amount declined to $413,500, which highlights an ongoing downward trend seen since it hit a record $460,000 in March 2022." Pretty Wild - Global energy consumption rose by 5.8% in 2021, exceeding pre-pandemic levels as economies revved up activity, while strong growth in renewable energies chipped away at fossil fuel use - Oil demand last year was 3.7 million barrels per day (bpd) below 2019 levels, driven primarily by weakness in the aviation sector, which was 33% below pre-pandemic levels, BP said in its 2021 Statistical Review of World Energy. - The rapid economic recovery also led to a 5.7% increase in greenhouse gas emissions from energy use, roughly similar to 2019 levels. - "The pronounced dip in carbon emissions in 2020 was only temporary," BP Chief Economist Spencer Dale said in the report. If that was not enough... - U.S. power companies are facing supply crunches that may hamper their ability to keep the lights on as the nation heads into the heat of summer and the peak hurricane season. - Utilities are warning of supply constraints for equipment, which could hamper efforts to restore power during outages. They are also having a tougher time rebuilding natural gas stockpiles for next winter as power generators burn record amounts of gas following the shutdown of dozens of coal plants in recent years and extreme drought cuts hydropower supplies in many Western states. Lunch-Flation - Global food prices surged 23% last month from a year before, according to an agricultural arm of the United Nations. The war in Ukraine has impacted supplies of grains from there and Russia, and caused energy and fertiliser prices to soar. - Offering cheap instant noodles, sandwiches and "gimbap" (rice rolls) for under $5, convenience stores are gaining in popularity as salaried workers like Park seek ways to cut costs. - Seeing increasing demand, GS25 has also launched a new meal subscription service for office workers, which comes with price discounts and deliveries directly to offices. - DH Food Provisioning? Now for the bad news - With more German, British and other allied troops to be on alert to deploy eastward, the United States is also adding to the 100,000 personnel already in Europe by sending more warships to Spain, planes to Britain, pre-positioned weapons to the Baltics and more soldiers to Romania. - NATO leaders agreed to move towards putting more than 300,000 troops at higher readiness. Fuel Protection - California - people using Ring Doorbell cam mounted on their car by gas tank fill for protection - The smart doorbell technology can record up to 25 feet outward from where it is fixed. It also has a two-way speaker which allows users to speak to the person at their door/gas tank. No Surprise - Credit Suisse was convicted by Switzerland's Federal Criminal Court of failing to prevent money-laundering in the country's first criminal trial of one of its major banks - A former employee was found guilty of money-laundering in the trial, which included testimony on murders and cash stuffed into suitcases and is seen as a test case for prosecutors taking a tougher line against the country's banks. - It marks another headache for Switzerland's second-biggest bank, which has been reeling from billions in losses racked up via risk-management and compliance blunders. Office Space - Block Inc., the payments-processing company formerly known as Square, plans to give up its former San Francisco headquarters as it transitions to a more distributed workforce model, dealing another blow to a city struggling to bring back workers after the pandemic. - The Jack Dorsey-run company won’t renew its lease at 1455 Market St. when it expires in September of next year, according to a spokesperson. Block had about 470,000 square feet (44,000 square meters) at the building, in the heart of the Mid-Market district that has been home to several large tech companies.   420 Stocks ... CLICK for list of "Pot Stocks" Stocks to watch: CGC, STZ, TLRY, CRON, MJ, NBEV Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? The WINNER for the CTP for NIO (NIO) *** NEW INTERACTIVE CHARTS *** Winners will be getting great stuff like the new DHUnplugged Shirts (Designed by Jimbo) - PLUS a one-of-a-kind DHUnplugged CTP Winner's certificate.. CLICK HERE FOR MORE CHARTS ON TRADING VIEW UPDATE - NEW ETF - Global X Millennials Thematic ETF Challenge! The top holdings of Global X Millennials Thematic ETF (MILN) include stocks many investors would expect, such as Facebook, LinkedIn and Amazon, which take advantage of the tech tendencies of millennials. But some names might be more surprising like real estate investment trusts AvalonBay Communities and Equity Residential, and Home Depot, which could benefit from millennials moving out of the home of their parents. We are creating the DH Old Codger Index Portfolio to compete against this new ETF to see how "old school" stocks do in comparison. Companies in our index will include: (updated names as of 8/29/16) We have the performance summary running (daily and since inception of 5/6/16) - DHOCI vs. Millennials ETF Battle CRYPTO LIMERICKS FED LIMERICKS Bryden Quirk There was a young man from Nantuckket Who kept all his cash in a bucket But the fed made him cry With inflation so high In the end he just had to chuck it JCD Score (B) See this week’s stock picks HERE Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter

DHUnplugged #612: Script Flipping
Big slowdown in prices of base metals and ags. Not inflationary – more like deflationary. An update on MonkeyPox, China, Oil and John McAfee. The ever exciting G7 meeting – what actually got done anyway? PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter Warm Up - Script Flipping (Seems weekly) - Notice a change in pricing? (Charts) - Oil prices down a bit - no change at the pump - 10Yr moves down after Fed rate decision - Still in a range - Announcing the winner of the latest CTP - NIO Market Update - Down UP 5-8% last week (US Markets with a SHORT WEEK) - Coming into the end of the quarter - we know what happens - So many bears right now - hard to short into all of this negativity - Commods, ags, base metals - rolling over hard (oil too) - Bond Auction - not so good. International investors stepping back - Russell Re-balance - Major Moves last week - one wild surprise - we have the chart NEWS: - The World Health Organization on Saturday declined to declare the unprecedented monkeypox outbreak that has spread around the world a public health emergency as of now. - FWIW they also dragged their feet for months on COVID Meanwhile - Macau launched a third round of mandatory COVID-19 testing for its more than 600,000 residents on Monday. - Casinos, while mostly deserted, are allowed to stay open, the city's government said, in a move to protect local jobs. --- How does this make sense? And China... - Reopening schools in Bejing, Declating VICTORY! - Meanwhile, Shanghai reported no new local cases - both symptomatic and asymptomatic - for June 24, the first time the Chinese economic hub had done so since Feb. 23 Russia - Debt Default - Russia defaulted on its international bonds for the first time in more than a century - The Kremlin, which has the money to make payments thanks to oil and gas revenues, swiftly rejected the claims, and has accused the West of driving it into an artificial default - Russia's efforts to avoid what would be its first major default on international bonds since the Bolshevik revolution more than a century ago hit a roadblock in late May when the U.S. Treasury Department's Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) effectively blocked Moscow from making payments - What does this mean? WEIRD REACTION? - Russia's ruble hit 52.3 to the dollar last Wednesday, an increase of roughly 1.3% on the previous day and its strongest level since May 2015. - The ruble has actually gotten so strong that Russia's central bank is actively taking measures to try to weaken it, fearing that this will make their exports less competitive. - The reasons are, to put it simply: strikingly high energy prices, capital controls and sanctions themselves. G7 Meet-up - Smile and back slapping - Global hunger on the agenda, climate change - China - ganging up against - Commitment to Ukraine - whatever they need. - The G7 partners are set to agree to ban imports of gold from Russia, a source familiar with the matter told Reuters. A German government source later said that leaders were having "really constructive" conversations on a possible price cap on Russian oil imports. Phew... - Ratings agency Moody's on Friday affirmed United States' rating at "Aaa", citing the country's emergence from the pandemic shock with "exceptional" economic strength. - "Moody's expects the US economy and the sovereign's credit profile to remain resilient to shocks, including the current challenges to the global economy from high and persistent inflation, tightening financial conditions, and the Russian invasion of Ukraine," the ratings agency said in a statement. - It maintained United States' outlook at stable. DEFLATIONARY = Agriculture Corn 13.97%, Soybeans 12.95%, Sugar 11.12%, Coffee 10.86%, Live Cattle 10.86%, Cocoa 10.18% Ags DEFLATIONARY = BASE METALS Base Metais ETF Since the High Since The High The Big Short - Burry Tweet - This supply glut at retail is the Bullwhip Effect. Google it. Worth understanding for your investing endeavors. Deflationary pulses from this- -> disinflation in CPI later this year --> Fed reverses itself on rates and QT - - What he’s referring to with the “Bullwhip Effect” is the deflationary effects of retailers holding too much inventory. The theory is that they will eventually have to drop prices to relieve themselves of the goods they have stockpiled. Banks - Passed Again - The largest U.S. banks last Thursday easily cleared the U.S. Federal Reserve's annual health check, in a vote of confidence for the sector amid signs the U.S. economy could tip into a recession in the months ahead. - The results of the Fed's annual "stress test" exercise showed the banks have enough capital to to weather a severe economic downturn and paves the way for them to issue share buybacks and dividends. - As a result, banks including JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Wells Fargo, Citigroup, Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs can use their excess capital to issue dividends and buybacks to shareholders. Those plans can be announced after the close of trading on Monday. Stomach Aches and Hepatitis - Over 100 cases of gastrointestinal illness have been reported at the Grand Canyon, with cases cropping up among visitors to the Colorado River and backcountry campers, according to park officials. - Weird hepatitis with kids - 900+ infected and no one knows the cause - North Korea has mystery stomach ailment outbreak Follow Up - The body of software entrepreneur John McAfee remains in a Spanish morgue a year after his death as a legal case lodged by his family to demand further checks is yet to be resolved, authorities and his lawyer said. - Basically, the family is petitioning the courts to change the cause of death from Suicide - so body is not able to be moved until appeals are over. Citadel Moving - Ken Griffin is moving Citadel’s headquarters to Miami, leaving its current home of Chicago after the billionaire decried the city’s crime rate and voiced frustrations with political leadership in Illinois. - The relocation will affect both hedge fund Citadel and Citadel Securities, the market making business, firm spokesman Zia Ahmed said Thursday. It’s the first step in a multi-year process that will involve the firm building a new office in Miami, which will serve as its global headquarters. How will this end? - Japan issuing warning for energy use - may have to shut down power to some areas if people don't cut back - Germany triggers gas alarm stage - potential gas rationing - Plenty of other areas having trouble with supply Money Saving - Amazon plans to hold a second shopping event for Prime members this year, in the fourth quarter, according to a notice viewed by CNBC. - It will be the first time Amazon will hold two shopping events exclusively for Prime members in the same year, and comes as the company is gearing up for for Prime Day, - Prime Day is the big annual sale designed to attract new Prime subscribers, which is happening July 12 and 13. The WidowMaker Trade - The bet is simple: that the Bank of Japan, under growing pressure to stabilize the yen as it sinks to a 24-year low, will have to abandon its 0.25% cap on benchmark bond yields and let them soar, just as they already have in the US, Canada, Europe and across much of the developing world. - In Tokyo’s financial circles, the trade is known as the widow-maker. And while it has done nothing but saddle young, cocksure investors from London to New York with crippling losses over the past two decades — ergo the name — they’re lining up once again to take a shot. End with This = Big News Value? 420 Stocks ... CLICK for list of "Pot Stocks" Stocks to watch: CGC, STZ, TLRY, CRON, MJ, NBEV Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? ANNOUNCING The WINNER for the CTP for NIO (NIO) *** NEW INTERACTIVE CHARTS *** Winners will be getting great stuff like the new DHUnplugged Shirts (Designed by Jimbo) - PLUS a one-of-a-kind DHUnplugged CTP Winner's certificate.. CLICK HERE FOR MORE CHARTS ON TRADING VIEW UPDATE - NEW ETF - Global X Millennials Thematic ETF Challenge! The top holdings of Global X Millennials Thematic ETF (MILN) include stocks many investors would expect, such as Facebook, LinkedIn and Amazon, which take advantage of the tech tendencies of millennials. But some names might be more surprising like real estate investment trusts AvalonBay Communities and Equity Residential, and Home Depot, which could benefit from millennials moving out of the home of their parents. We are creating the DH Old Codger Index Portfolio to compete against this new ETF to see how "old school" stocks do in comparison. Companies in our index will include: (updated names as of 8/29/16) We have the performance summary running (daily and since inception of 5/6/16) - DHOCI vs. Millennials ETF Battle CRYPTO LIMERICKS JCD Score ( ) See this week’s stock picks HERE Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter

TDI Podcast: Policy Mistake @100% (#772)
Finally, an up week for markets – but still squirrelly. Oil Down, commodities down, VIX hanging under 30. Gas tax holiday announced and other bad ideas coming your way Guest, Fed Insider Danielle Dimartimo Booth. As Founder & CEO of Quill Intelligence, Danielle DiMartino Booth set out to launch a #ResearchRevolution, redefining how markets intelligence […]

DHUnplugged #611: Then This Happens
Stocks blasted, then loved. Markets have no memory. Car loans 6, 7 years? Fear is palpable. What happens when everyone is on one side of the ship? PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter Warm Up - Kaboom - 0.75% loved then hated! - Markets seem to move one day up and one day down - Oil getting sold - China in Spotlight again. - Animation Banned - Cost of paying for a new car - Watchout! - A little Mahi fishing this weekend.. Market Update - Down 6-10% last 5 days (US Markets) - Debate rages about - USD Up, Oil Down, Rates Up, Stocks - who knows -  Big day Tuesday - Light volume, but BIG moves on indices - best in a while. Energy and Financial Lead - No direction - oversold after last week - will it last? Fear - You can smell it... - Downgrades stsarting, everyone on the bear train. - Remember what they said when everyone on the Bull train? - When all on one side of the ship.... This happens.. How Bad Is It? Wealth Destrucion Coins - And, the joke is on who? - are HODL'rs Bagholders? - Weekend action was nuts - Bitcoin under $18,000 - Looked like panic in light of Celsius and other worries. BAD COINS ALT-Energy - Europe's biggest Russian gas buyers were racing to find alternative fuel supplies and even looking at burning more coal to cope with reduced gas flows from Russia on Monday that threaten an energy crisis in winter if stores are not refilled. - The Benchmark Dutch front-month gas contract was trading at about 127 euros per megawatt hour on Monday, up more than 50% since the start of 2022. - What were they thinking? META - Stock price near the pandemic low - Zuck seen in photo of new metavers /VR headset (looks like old black dive mask) SCUBA DIVING ZUCK? Home / Housing - Lennar Corp today became the first major U.S. homebuilder to flag a slowdown in demand for new homes as red-hot prices and surging interest rates force many buyers to rethink purchases. - Any forecast at this point would amount to "guessing", Lennar said, even as it maintained its home delivery expectations for the full year at about 68,000 homes. - For the second quarter, however, the higher home prices and demand helped Lennar report a profit of $1.32 billion, or $4.49 per share, beating analysts' expectations of $3.96 per share And Now This - Treasury Sec. Janet Yellen said that she anticipates the “economy to slow” during a Sunday morning interview on “This Week.” - “Well, I expect the economy to slow. It’s been growing at a very rapid rate as the labor market has recovered, and we’ve reached full employment, it’s natural now that we expect to transition to steady and stable growth. But I don’t think a recession is at all inevitable.” Even More Yellen:| - U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said some tariffs on China inherited from the administration of former President Donald Trump made "no strategic sense" and added that President Joe Biden was reviewing them as a way to bring down inflation. COVID - China - The world's biggest gambling hub Macau began its second day of mass COVID-19 testing on Monday after dozens of locally transmitted cases were discovered over the weekend, with most businesses shut but casinos remaining open. - Most residents are asked to stay home, restaurants will be shut for dine-in and border restrictions have been tightened, meaning casino revenue is likely to be close to zero for at least a week and likely the coming weeks - BUT, Casinos NOT CLOSED Racism in the MetaVerse (CNBC Article) - The tech industry has spent a decade publicly reckoning with its diversity problem. Still, Black and Hispanic workers hold just 7% and 8% of computer worker roles in the U.S., though they represent 11% and 17% of the country's total workforce, respectively, according to the Pew Research Center. - If the companies building the metaverse are lacking in diverse voices, Nelson says, it'll be hard to avoid the same problems experienced by today's social media users — including more than 80 million Americans of color, according to a CNBC Make It analysis of Pew data. Kellogg Splitting into 3 companies - The company will spin off its North American cereal business and plant-based division, which accounted for about 20% of its revenue last year. - The remaining business includes its snacks, noodles, international cereal and North American frozen breakfast brands, which altogether represented about 80% of its 2021 sales. - Kellogg said it expects the tax-free spinoffs will be completed by the end of 2023. - Names for the new companies have not been decided yet (Kellogg Plus?) Last Buffett Charity Lunch - A lucky, and likely wealthy, person bid more than $19 million to dine with Warren Buffett, in the 21st and final time that the billionaire businessman auctioned a private lunch to benefit a San Francisco charity. - Ebay was platform for auction... - Previous record $4.57 million  (2019 paid in crypto) - Who would you want to have lunch with? Amazon - Leaked Memo - Amazon is facing a looming crisis: It could run out of people to hire in its US warehouses by 2024, according to leaked Amazon internal research from mid-2021 that Recode reviewed. If that happens, the online retailer’s service quality and growth plans could be at risk, and its e-commerce dominance along with it. - “If we continue business as usual, Amazon will deplete the available labor supply in the US network by 2024,” the research, which hasn’t previously been reported, says. - (If markets and crypto don't behave, plenty of people will be available to go back to work) Uber - JCD thoughts on lack of profitability? Stock News - Spirit Airlines (SAVE) – Spirit rallied 8.1% in premarket trading after JetBlue (JBLU) increased its takeover offer for Spirit by $2 to $33.50 per share. Spirit plans to decide by the end of the month whether to stick with its deal to merge with Frontier Group (ULCC) or to accept JetBlue's bid. JetBlue rose 1.6%. - Mondelez (MDLZ) – Mondelez is buying energy bar maker Clif Bar & Co. for $2.9 billion with additional payouts possible depending on financial results. The transaction is expected to close during the third quarter. - Tesla added was up big today after CEO Elon Musk gave more details on the planned job cuts announced earlier this month. Musk told Bloomberg the company would cut salaried staff by about 10% over the next three months, resulting in an overall reduction of about 3.5%. - Charles Schwab (SCHW) – The brokerage firm was upgraded to "buy" from "neutral" at UBS, which called Schwab a quality name well insulated from credit and market risk. Another Bankruptcy Squeeze - Revlon files Chapter 11 - Stock up from  $1.50 to $6 in last 3 sessions. New Old Phrase - a great generational opportunity - Fund manager Sylvia Jablonski said Friday that the recent drop in the stock market has given investors with a long time horizon "a great generational opportunity" to purchase high-growth stocks relatively cheaply."This is going to end up being noise when you look back on it," the chief investment officer for Defiance ETFs told CNBC. "In the short term, though, it's painful, it feels terrible and we have to ride it out." LinkedIn - FBI Warning (DUH!) - Fraudsters who exploit LinkedIn to lure users into cryptocurrency investment schemes pose a "significant threat" to the platform and consumers, according to Sean Ragan, the FBI's special agent in charge of the San Francisco and Sacramento, California, field offices. - The scheme works like this: A fraudster posing as a professional creates a fake profile and reaches out to a LinkedIn user. The scammer starts with small talk over LinkedIn messaging, and eventually offers to help the victim make money through a crypto investment. Victims interviewed by CNBC say since LinkedIn is a trusted platform for business networking, they tend to believe the investments are legitimate. LARRY! - Larry Summers Says US Needs 5% Jobless Rate for Five Years to Ease Inflation - Former Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers said the US jobless rate would need to rise above 5% for a sustained period in order to curb inflation that’s running at the hottest pace in four decades. - “We need five years of unemployment above 5% to contain inflation -- in other words, we need two years of 7.5% unemployment or five years of 6% unemployment or one year of 10% unemployment,” said Summers said in a speech in London Monday. “There are numbers that are remarkably discouraging relative to the Fed Reserve view.” - MEANWHILE, Fed's Mester says inflation will not fall to 2% target for 2 years! Lightyear - Same-Sex cartoon kiss - More than a dozen Asian and Middle Eastern countries will not releases Disney's "Lightyear" in movie theaters over an animated same-sex kiss, but the ban likely won't have a major impact on the film's global box office. - In the film, Buzz's close friend is a female space ranger who marries a woman. During a montage of milestones in the couple's life there is a brief kiss between the two. New Car Cost - The monthly costs to finance a vehicle purchase have hit record highs. Consumers face monthly payments averaging $656 for a new car, financed at 5.1% over 70.5 months, according to May data from Edmunds.com. For used cars, the average monthly payment is $546, with an average rate of 8.2% and loan length of 70.8 months. From the crazy file - A desperate developer in China's softening property market is coming up with a novel promotion to attract buyers, recently offering to take wheat and garlic as down payments. - One advertisement of Henan-based Central China Real Estate that had "swap wheat for house" in the title says buyers can use the crop, priced at 2 yuan per catty, a Chinese unit of mass equal to roughly 500 grams, to offset as much as 160,000 yuan ($23,900.22) of down payment in one of its developments. 420 Stocks ... CLICK for list of "Pot Stocks" Stocks to watch: CGC, STZ, TLRY, CRON, MJ, NBEV Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? ANNOUNCING The CTP for NIO (NIO) *** NEW INTERACTIVE CHARTS *** Winners will be getting great stuff like the new DHUnplugged Shirts (Designed by Jimbo) - PLUS a one-of-a-kind DHUnplugged CTP Winner's certificate.. CLICK HERE FOR MORE CHARTS ON TRADING VIEW UPDATE - NEW ETF - Global X Millennials Thematic ETF Challenge! The top holdings of Global X Millennials Thematic ETF (MILN) include stocks many investors would expect, such as Facebook, LinkedIn and Amazon, which take advantage of the tech tendencies of millennials. But some names might be more surprising like real estate investment trusts AvalonBay Communities and Equity Residential, and Home Depot, which could benefit from millennials moving out of the home of their parents. We are creating the DH Old Codger Index Portfolio to compete against this new ETF to see how "old school" stocks do in comparison. Companies in our index will include: (updated names as of 8/29/16) We have the performance summary running (daily and since inception of 5/6/16) - DHOCI vs. Millennials ETF Battle CRYPTO LIMERICKS Justin Duiguid There once was a coin from Do Kwan 'Twas not pegged to the dollar for long. He poked out his chest - got suckers to invest and now all their money is gone! JCD Score ( ) See this week’s stock picks HERE Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter

TDI Podcast: Second Level Thinking (#771)
Trial balloons, leaks and 75 basis points. Central banks are in a tizzy – market gyrations making me dizzy. Key Reversal Indicator – would you look at that! And, a review of current economic conditions. Follow @andrewhorowitz Looking for style diversification? More information on the TDI Managed Growth Strategy – https://thedisciplinedinvestor.com/blog/tdi-strategy/ eNVESTOLOGY Info – https://envestology.com/ […]

DHUnplugged #610: Rule #1 – Never Do This
Floating a 75bps hike – late Monday that is what the Fed is doing in hopes of moving faster to just pull the band-aid off. Crypto collapse – bad things happening in the space this week. Mortgage applications drop off a cliff as the Fed is expected to pump up the volume… PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter Warm Up - BAD MARKET - Rule #1 - Never tell people they cannot have their money - Food Wars? Big Problems - WSJ Floating 75bps trial balloon! - NEW WORD! Market Update - Down 6-10% last 5 days (US Markets) - Smoked on Rate hike fears - Coins eviscerated, disemboweled - Another Project (Celsius) bites the dust - BEAR - YTD SP 500 -21%m NASDAQ -31% VIX up 89% - Natural Gas PLUNGES Recap of last Week - Wild Stuff AGAIN - Crypto Crashes - HARD - Celsius - Bitcoin slumped 14% on Monday after major U.S. cryptocurrency lending company Celsius Network froze withdrawals and transfers citing "extreme" conditions, in the latest sign of the financial market downturn hitting the cryptosphere. - Etherium whacked as well as the entire space - Once again - machine/algo/quant driven blow ups that were levered - Binance suspended withdrawals for a time being on Monday - due to logjam - RULE # 1 - NEVER TELL PEOPLE THEY CANNOT GET THEIR MONEY Coin Question - Can Binance and Coinbase halt and under what circumstances? Tuna Fish - Robert Kiyasaki - Rich Dad/Poor Dad said great as investment for inflation - 2 things - 1) Lame discussion 2) Ripped me off of my idea - Tuna great bunker food and currency Explain? - World Bank - Food Crisis is coming - Fertilizer costs up BIG - Lots of Fertilizers from Russia and Belarus (amongst other places)" - Low plantings due to high cost of fertilizer = less food = higher prices and the journey continues - US gov't reportedly encouraging ag and shipping companies to buy and carry more Russian fertilizer in a measure to ease spiraling food costs More Food - or is it China feud? - Pork Wars - Smithfield Foods Inc., which is a unit of China's WH Group, it will cease all harvest and processing operations in Vernon, Calif., in early 2023. - "Smithfield is taking these steps due to the escalating cost of doing business in California," the company said. The move is part of an overall effort to reduce its sow herd in the Western U.S., including Utah. It's also "exploring strategic options" to pull out of its farms in Arizona and California. - Lots of layoffs - Maybe just making statement about states with high costs? Rates and Markets - CPI comes in at 8.6% on Friday - all hell breaks loose - Big moves in food and other core numbers, - WSJ floats 75bp idea for coming meeting (current rate hike assumption is for 50 bps) -  MONDAY 3PM - The 2-yr note yield has surged to 3.42% while the 10-yr note yield has jumped to 3.36%, eliminating the spread between the two as market participants sense an aggressive rate-hike path will lead to slower growth, and possibly a recession, in coming months. - Thought - Maybe market will like that Fed is getting this done faster - instead of letting this drag out (thought of market participants) -- Many presume that markets can rally on this type of move ---- HOWEVER - takes time to absorb this kind of move in markets - could actually cause panic More Rates - Last week - 30 year mortgage 5.5% - This week 6.35% - Mortgage applications dropped 50% YoY Tesla - Bigger problems - Production at Tesla Inc's Shanghai factory is on track to fall by over a third this quarter from the first three months of the year as China's zero-COVID lockdowns caused deeper disruptions to output than Elon Musk had predicted. - Last week, he told Tesla executives in an email he had a "super bad feeling" about the economy and needed to cut jobs by about 10% and freeze hiring. NEW WORD - At least newly used in current situation - - WTO Chief: "I wish I could say for better. It has certainly become more complex," she told a news conference before the meeting, listing the lingering COVID-19 pandemic, the war in Ukraine and major food and energy crises as pieces of a "polycrisis". Nukes - NoKo - IRAN - Russia - China Now: China has made "impressive progress" in developing new nuclear weapons, but will only use them for self-defence, and never use them first, Chinese Defence Minister Wei Fenghe told delegates at the Shangri-La Dialogue on Sunday. - In response to a question about reports last year on construction of more than 100 new nuclear missile silos in China's east, he said China "has always pursued an appropriate path to developing nuclear capabilities for protection of our country" COVID - Never going to end - Beijing and Shanghai are on alert again - How can this ever end if just 2 weeks back from lock-downs - lock-downs happening again? - So far a total of 290 cases linked to the bar have been reported, with the afflicted from 14 of Beijing's 16 districts, throwing the city of 22 million back into a state of anxiety. DWAC- WHACKED - Investigation into the Truth Social SPAC - - As previously disclosed in Digital World's quarterly report on Form 10-Q for the period ended March 31, 2022 and other filings with the SEC, Digital World received a document request and subpoena from the SEC seeking various documents and information regarding, among other things, meetings of Digital World board of directors; communications with and the evaluation of potential targets, including TMTG; communications relating to TMTG; agreements with and payments made to certain advisors; investors, including investor meetings and agreements; the appointment of certain of Digital World's officers and directors; policies and procedures relating to trading; and documents sufficient to identify banking, telephone, and email addresses. - DOWN 26% today Crypto - Microstrategy off by more than 80% from high - Michael Saylor - the Crypto "god" putting company in jeopardy - possible margin call discussed - He told people last year to mortgage their house, buy Bitcoin (with everything you have) - Pied Piper EVEN MORE! - Coinbase is laying off almost a fifth of its workforce amid a collapse in its stock and crypto prices. - About 1,000 workers - CEO Brian Armstrong pointed to a possible recession, and a need to manage Coinbase's burn rate and increase efficiency. He also said the company grew "too quickly" during a bull market. Follow Up - Also seeing several private fintech and other public fast growers layoffs - Example: Compass Realty doing a big layoff (Stock down 80% since high) Go Private Deal -Shale producer Continental Resources Inc said on Tuesday it has received an all-cash buyout proposal from billionaire-founder Harold Hamm's family trust, which valued the company at $25.41 billion. - The Hamm family holds about 83% of the total outstanding shares of the company's common stock. The proposal of $70 per share represents about 9% premium over Continental's last closing price. - Interesting that the stock traded to $74 today Natural Gas plunged - U.S. natural gas fell about 16% to $7.22 per million British thermal units - Natural gas prices plunged on Tuesday, after Freeport LNG said its facility that had a fire last week likely won’t be back up and running soon. - “The U.S. natural gas market will now be temporarily oversupplied as 2 bcf/d or a little over 2% of demand for U.S. natural gas has been abruptly eliminated,” said Rob Thummel, managing director at Tortoise Capital. - Despite Tuesday’s drop, natural gas prices are still up 93% since the start of the year. Gas Prices - Average price at the pump in the US topped $5 PFOF - The head of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission said the agency may propose the most wide-ranging reforms to the equities market in nearly 20 years. - The proposed rules would rein in a practice called payment for order flow (PFOF), which is banned in Canada, the UK, and Australia. - SEC Chair Gary Gensler said investors might get better prices without PFOF if there was more competition to execute retail orders. - He suggested sending orders to auctions, to improvedeals for retail investors. 420 Stocks ... CLICK for list of "Pot Stocks" Stocks to watch: CGC, STZ, TLRY, CRON, MJ, NBEV Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? ANNOUNCING The CTP for NIO (NIO) *** NEW INTERACTIVE CHARTS *** Winners will be getting great stuff like the new DHUnplugged Shirts (Designed by Jimbo) - PLUS a one-of-a-kind DHUnplugged CTP Winner's certificate.. CLICK HERE FOR MORE CHARTS ON TRADING VIEW UPDATE - NEW ETF - Global X Millennials Thematic ETF Challenge! The top holdings of Global X Millennials Thematic ETF (MILN) include stocks many investors would expect, such as Facebook, LinkedIn and Amazon, which take advantage of the tech tendencies of millennials. But some names might be more surprising like real estate investment trusts AvalonBay Communities and Equity Residential, and Home Depot, which could benefit from millennials moving out of the home of their parents. We are creating the DH Old Codger Index Portfolio to compete against this new ETF to see how "old school" stocks do in comparison. Companies in our index will include: (updated names as of 8/29/16) We have the performance summary running (daily and since inception of 5/6/16) - DHOCI vs. Millennials ETF Battle LIMERICKS SHOULD WE ACCEPT CRYPTO LIMERICKS? See this week’s stock picks HERE Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter

TDI Podcast: No DIY Haircuts! (#770)
Haircuts – why you don’t do them yourself. Two trends that will benefit from high inflation and why billions of $$ will start flowing into Bitcoin. Frank Curzio is our guest and he is talking about the Metaverse (land), inflation and deflation, oil prices and bear markets. Frank Curzio can be reached by email at […]


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